Regulation of the Day 93: Predatory Lending

Congress has used the financial crisis as an excuse to regulate what it calls “predatory lending.” As so often happens, its new regulations have had unintended consequences.

A bank in South Dakota, in order to comply with the new rules, is charging 79.9 percent interest for one of its low-limit credit cards. The pre-regulation rate was 9.9 percent.

The Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act of 2009 makes it illegal to charge annual fees greater than a quarter of a card’s limit. For small-balance cards, the allowable fees are tiny now. That leaves banks with three options:

-1. Lose money. The Wall Street Journal correctly notes that “Banks can’t be expected to give money away, even if Congress is in the habit of doing just that.” So this option is unlikely.

-2. Stop offering low-limit cards. This will hurt people who need them, such as people with low incomes, people with bad credit records, and young people who are trying to establish a credit record.

-3. Charge higher interest rates to make up for the money lost in fees. This is exactly what is happening here with the 79.9 percent rate for a $250-limit card.

If the bank calculated correctly, the 79.9 percent rate will be roughly a wash compared to the earlier high-fee, low-rate policy. But different customers will be paying. The people who incur a lot of  interest-rate charges are usually the people who can’t afford them. And they’ll be paying a lot more than they were before the CCARD Act.

People who can afford to pay their balances on time often don’t pay little or no interest interest anyway. The 79.9 percent rate doesn’t really affect them. And now their annual fees have gone way down. The CCARD Act is, completely unintentionally,  a wealth transfer from poor people to richer people. Congress is actively hurting the very people it intended to help.

Terrorism Is Rare

Radley Balko points to an article that shows exactly how rare terrorism is.

The figure that caught my eye was the last one. There were 647 deaths due to airborne terrorism over the last last ten years. There were 7,015,630,000 passengers over the same period. Yes, that figure is higher than current world population. That’s because each time someone flies, they count as one passenger. You take ten trips, you’re counted ten times. That represents each opportunity to become a terrorist victim, and is therefore the correct measure to use.

Each time you board a plane, your odds of being a victim of terrorism are about  1 in 10,408,947 (my own calculations yielded 1 in 10,843,323, but the point holds either way). Your odds of being struck by lighting are over twenty times higher!

Terrorists are so rare that they can’t win by killing people. There are too many of us and too few of them. Terrorists can only win by scaring people. Making them overreact. Making them trade away their freedom for for the illusion of security. The TSA, which is based on exactly that, represents the terrorists’ greatest victory yet.

That’s why people need to know just how safe we really are, even with all of the terrorists out there. The more we know, the less scary they become. And fear is their only effective weapon. If we take it away, the terrorists lose.

Scroogenomics

Today’s Washington Times contains my review of Joel Waldfogel’s book Scroogenomics: Why You shouldn’t Buy Presents for the Holidays.

Here’s a taste:

“‘A cribbage board? You shouldn’t have,’ we tell our mothers-in-law. Indeed.” In those three short sentences, Joel Waldfogel describes the origin of what retailers call “return season” and what consumers call “the week after Christmas.”

Mr. Waldfogel has a point here. By his calculations, such gifts cost the U.S. economy about $85 billion in waste. That’s more than 124 countries’ entire gross domestic product, by the way.

Regulation of the Day 92: Camping at the Beach

In Oregon, it is illegal to set up a tent at most beaches.

A beach would not be my first choice for a place to spend the night. It would be cold and wet, especially in Oregon. Sand would get into all kinds of places I’d rather it wouldn’t.

But is a law necessary? Before the tent ban, was there an epidemic of cold, wet, and sandy people on Oregon’s beaches, who would gladly turn to safer, more comfortable accommodations if only a law would nudge them in that direction?

Or should the Solons of Oregon turn their attention to more important matters?

For the Birds

An environmental group is suing to cancel an upcoming AC/DC concert in Austria because they think loud music poses a threat to birds.

No further comment is necessary, or will be offered.

2009: The Year in Books

It’s year-end list season. Thought I’d join the fun with a list of books I read this year, along with a few words about each. Books that I started and didn’t finish are not listed. Hopefully you’ll find a few you’ll want to pick up yourself. I enjoyed each and every one; I wouldn’t have bothered reading all the way through if I didn’t.

I read a lot about economics because it’s my job to. And I read a lot of history because I love history. But I’m a bit weak on literature and science. Any suggestions for good books in those areas are most welcome.

1. Dante Alighieri – Inferno
Dante was the last great gasp of the medieval mind, and arguably started Europe’s transition into the early Renaissance. You probably read this in high school. I did. And I hated it. But re-reading it this year, I loved every word. Since this work is very much a creature of its time and place, some historical background into late medieval Florence is essential. Fortunately, the abundant footnotes in the edition linked to above are extremely helpful, though they do slow things down. I’m 4 cantos away from finishing Purgatorio, and hope to eventually finish the trilogy.

2. Joel Best – Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists
A guide to the more common statistical fallacies that newspapers and politicians use. Some of those fallacies are due to ignorance. Some are intentionally misleading. This book seeks to prevent people from being misled in the first place.

3. Fernand Braudel – The Structures of Everyday Life: Civilization and Capitalism, 15th-18th Century, Volume 1
This book was a landmark event in the historiographical shift from kings-and-battles to everyday social history. It is also, unintentionally, the best case for modernity ever put to paper. The first hundred pages are a litany of disease, famine, early death, loneliness, cold, and drudgery. And that’s how life was for most people before the Industrial Revolution.

4. Marcus Tullius Cicero – De Oratore
Cicero was the best, most persuasive public speaker of his day. He was also one of the best prose stylists. De Oratore is his how-to guide for aspiring orators. This book made me a better speaker, a better writer, and was a revelation in how to keep my thoughts organized.

5. Hernando De Soto – The Other Path: The Economic Answer to Terrorism
A classic in the field of development economics, which focuses on how to make poor countries rich. De Soto’s answer is rooted in property rights. He wrote this book in the 1980s at great personal risk. Sendero Luminoso, a Maoist terrorist group in De Soto’s native Peru, bombed his offices and made several attempts on his life because this book was such a convincing refutation of their ideas.

6. Will and Ariel Durant – The Story of Civilization, Volume XI: The Age of Napoleon
The last of their masterly eleven-volume survey of human history. Eleven of the best books I have ever read. Oh, how they could write. And their integral historiographical approach was revolutionary in bringing history alive for the layman.

7. Anthony Everitt – Hadrian and the Triumph of Rome
The third and last of Everitt’s biographies of great Romans. His books on Cicero and Augustus are the best of this generation; this one falls a bit short due to the poor historical record. As a result, it is about Hadrian’s predecessor Trajan as much as it is about Hadrian himself. Still a good book.

8. Bob Garfield – The Chaos Scenario
An opinionated take on the decline of old media and the rise of new media.

9. Phil Hanrahan – Life After Favre: A Season of Change with the Green Bay Packers and Their Fans
The author moved from LA back to Wisconsin to follow the Packers in their first season without Favre. Part travel memoir, part sports journalism, it’s about the fans as much as it is the players.

10. Peter Heather – The Fall of the Roman Empire: A New History of Rome and the Barbarians
A new take on Rome’s fall. He thinks it was external, not internal. The Empire was doing just fine in the 5th century, but population pressures in Asia forced mass migrations to the West at a faster pace than the West could assimilate. It’s often paired with Adrian Goldsworthy’s very different book on the same subject, which I haven’t read.

11. Christopher Hitchens – Thomas Paine’s Rights of Man: A Biography
Short primer on Paine, with all the panache and hyper-erudition one would expect from a Hitchens book.

12. Darrell Huff – How to Lie with Statistics
A classic of its genre from the 1950s. A quick, easy read that taxonomizes the most common tricks used in charts, graphs, and statistics.

13. Steven E. Landsburg – The Big Questions: Tackling the Problems of Philosophy with Ideas from Mathematics, Economics, and Physics
The economist as philosopher. Very different, and very good.

14. Steven E. Landsburg – More Sex Is Safer Sex: The Unconventional Wisdom of Economics
Another book along the lines of his The Armchair Economist and Fair Play. Landsburg’s absolutely relentless use of logic and economic reasoning is inspiring. He’s one of my favorites.

15. Peter T. Leeson – The Invisible Hook: The Hidden Economics of Pirates
Pirates and economics, together at last. Leeson was pretty entertaining (not to mention radical) as a professor. So is his book.

16. Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner – Superfreakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, and Why Suicide Bombers should Buy Life Insurance
Better than the first one. Borders on being contrarian for its own sake at times. And a climatologist I know says that the physics behind one of the geoengineering schemes they describe in chapter 5 are flawed. But this book will make you think.

17. Niccoló Machiavelli – The Prince
Machiavelli was the original public choice theorist. He describes how Florence worked in his day, which is also how Washington works  in our day. I keep a leather-bound edition in my office, and a paperback edition at home. I make sure to re-read this every few years.

18. Thomas K. McCraw – Prophet of Innovation: Joseph Schumpeter and Creative Destrtuction
Schumpeter had quite the life story, and McCraw tells it well. His explanation of Schumpeter’s intellectual work is top-notch.

19. Thomas K. McCraw – Prophets of Regulation: Charles Francis Adams; Louis D. Brandeis; James M. Landis; Alfred E. Kahn
If Plutarch wrote about regulation, he would have written something like this.

20. Ludwig von Mises – Human Action: A Treatise on Economics
Didn’t read it in college. Didn’t read it in grad school. Finally read it this year. And I see the world a little differently now. It’s not easy going, but this is the most definitive — and thorough — economic work since Adam Smith.

21. Charles Murray – Real Education: Four Simple Truths for Bringing America’s Schools Back to Reality
Takes a sledgehammer to the Lake Wobegon school of thought. His pedagogy is a little traditionalist for my taste, but his policy recommendations are a breath of fresh air.

22. Johan Norberg – Financial Fiasco: How America ’s Infatuation with Homeownership and Easy Money Created the Economic Crisis
The sanest breakdown of the financial crisis that I’ve seen. Echoes of Tocqueville. I had more to say in an earlier post.

23. Edwin S. Rockefeller – The Antitrust Religion
Strident in tone, but a valuable introduction to the basics of antitrust policy.

24. Joseph A. Schumpeter – Can Capitalism Survive? Creative Destruction and the Future of the Global Economy
An excerpt from Schumpeter’s masterwork, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. Contains his explanation of his theory of creative destruction.

25. William Caruthers Sellar and Robert Julian Yeatman – 1066 and All That: A Memorable History of England
Easily the funniest book I’ve read in years. It came out during the Great Depression, and is still just as funny today.

26. Thomas Sowell – Applied Economics: Thinking beyond Stage One
From the content to the delivery, Sowell is one of the best economics writers there is. He’s in fine form for this book. His politics are to the right of mine, but this book is about economics, so there’s very little politicking.

27. Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
The tone is haughty, but it contains valuable lessons about probability, certainty, and humility. Though the third seems to have escaped the author.

28. Nassim Nicholas Taleb – The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
More of the same from Taleb. This is a good thing.

29. Arnold J. Toynbee – Civilization on Trial
Toynbee was one of the best of the big-picture historians. Though his obsession with world government is a bit odd to an early 21st century reader. He thought history was unstoppably progressing in that direction.

30. Joel Waldfogel – Scroogenomics: Why You shouldn’t Buy Presents for the Holidays
I liked it. My review will run tomorrow in the Washington Times.

31. Fiona Watson – Scotland: From Prehistory to the Present
A 300-page survey history that reads quickly. Found it in a gift shop in Scotland while there on vacation. It was exactly what I was looking for: a short introduction to the land I was visiting so I could better appreciate where I was.

32. Derek Wilson – Charlemagne: A Biography
This one was a little disappointing. Only half of this short book is about Charlemagne’s life. The rest is about Europe. Charlemagne was one of the great unifiers of the continent. He was the first post-classical European to reign over a territory as large as a modern nation-state. He set in motion a trend that continues today with the EU. That’s important. But I would have preferred more on his life and times, and less on all that.

Regulation of the Day 91: Horse Floaters

As horses age, their teeth often wear down into points. This can cause the animals great pain if they bite into their tongue or cheeks. Chewing can also become problematic. A horse floater’s job is to keep that from happening. They are a kind of equine dental specialist. Floaters anesthetize the animal then grind its teeth into smoother shapes.

But regulators are clamping down on horse floaters. Many states want to require them to be licensed veterinarians. This would throw a lot of floaters out of business. Most of them specialize in horse teeth and have no need for full veterinary training. That’s why few have bothered to get it, since it takes years of school and thousands of dollars.

Horse floater Carl Mitz told a reporter, ‘Saying only veterinarians can do this profession … if they’re successful, it eliminates me. After 25 years, I’ll no longer have a job.’

Mr. Mitz is fighting back in court. But he shouldn’t have to. He has a right to make an honest living. And he has been for at least 25 years. Regulators should respect that right.

Regulation of the Day 90: The National Poultry Improvement Plan

Having solved all the nation’s other problems, the federal government has a National Poultry Improvement Plan. Run in conjunction with state governments, “The main objective of this program is to use new diagnostic technology to effectively improve poultry and poultry products throughout the United States.”

Because the government puts so much time and attention into issues like chicken health, it is neglecting its core duty: protecting citizens from attack. Last week’s terrorist attack should be a wake-up call for the government to drop non-essential tasks and concentrate on what it should be doing.

Regulation of the Day 89: Purple Dye

Ancient Roman consuls – equivalent to our presidents – wore togas edged in purple to mark their high status. As Republic became Empire, new emperors were said to “ascend to the purple.”

Purple clothing was a status symbol for most of human history. It was the ancient equivalent of the Mercedes-Benz. Originally discovered in the glands of shellfish (reputedly by Heracles’s dog!), it took 12,000 of the creatures to get just 1.5 grams of dye. Purple garments could be as rare and costly as gold in some places.

Modern innovations such as inexpensive synthetic dyes, the Minnesota Vikings, and purple M&Ms have taken away the color’s exotic reputation. But no worry. Federal regulators are doing what they can to bring it back.

Alpinil Industries, a dye manufacturer in India, sells its carbazole violet pigment 23 cheaply. Too cheaply, it seems. Even commoners can afford to buy products colored with their purple hues!

Irate American competitors convinced the government in 2004 to put an anti-dumping duty on Alpinil’s purple dye. That raised the price to match pricey American-made dyes. Purple would once again be reserved for the rich.

Now that the tax has been in place for five years, the Department of Commerce is wrapping up an investigation to see if it has been working as intended. A repeal would be best for consumers. Don’t expect to see it happen, though.

The benefits are concentrated to a few dye manufacturers, who have a strong incentive to lobby to keep the status quo. Meanwhile, the costs are diffused onto millions of consumers, none of whom have much incentive to spend thousands of dollars in an effort to save themselves a few pennies.

Regulation of the Day 88: College Football’s Playoff System

College football is bringing big bucks to K Street as lawmakers take aim at dismantling the Bowl Championship Series,” says a recent story in Politico.

A six-figure sum is being spent lobbying what really shouldn’t be a government issue. Millions more are being spent on other issues affecting college sports.

There’s even a PlayOff PAC that gives money to politicians who take an active stance on college football playoff reform.

True, the BCS playoff system could definitely use an overhaul. But that’s a job for the NCAA. Not Congress.

On the other hand, legislators do considerably less harm when they spend their time on college football instead of, say, health care or fiscal stimulus.