Category Archives: modernity

It’s Good to Think Long-Term

From Kindle location 710 of Adam Thierer’s excellent 2020 book Evasive Entrepreneurs and the Future of Governance: How Innovation Improves Economies and Governments:

If the primary indictment of technological innovation is that it has inundated us with too much information or too many options, those are good problems compared with the more serious problems our ancestors faced.

You can read about some of those problems in Fernand Braudel’s The Structures of Everyday Life or William Manchester’s evocatively titled A World Lit Only by Fire.  Today’s political debates would improve if more people had that larger historical arc in the back of their minds.

Andrew McAfee – More from Less: The Surprising Story of How We Learned to Prosper Using Fewer Resources—and What Happens Next

Andrew McAfee – More from Less: The Surprising Story of How We Learned to Prosper Using Fewer Resources—and What Happens Next

This would be good for an undergraduate economics course. McAfee’s thesis captures the core insights of economic growth and what causes it. He also makes the true but unpopular case that prosperity results in a cleaner environment. Poverty pollutes. In wealthy countries, people can afford to care about environmental quality, and also develop more efficient production processes that cause less harm in the first place. McAfee never uses the term, but economists call this phenomenon the environmental Kuznets curve. Basically, pollution and other harms increase until a country reaches roughly $4,500-$5,000 of per capital GDP. At that level of wealth, people don’t have to worry as much about their next meal will come from, or basics such as sturdy shelter and tolerable sanitation. Children can go to school instead of working on the farm. With those needs mostly being met, people then become interested in next-level wants, which include a clean environment.

McAfee writes a simple, direct style that reads a little bit like an introductory textbook. He also doesn’t go into the nitty-gritty the way similar works by authors like Hans Rosling, Matt Ridley, and others do. This isn’t a bad thing; he’s serving a different niche than they are.

He is quite direct in stating his belief that free markets are the reason most of the world are now on the right side of the environmental Kuznets curve, and that markets are why he is confident enough that improvements will continue. So confident that he is willing to bet his own money that numerous indicators will improve—see his website for more, and to bet against him if you wish. He is willing to wager up to $100,000 of his own money.