Mark Forsyth – The Elements of Eloquence: Secrets of the Perfect Turn of Phrase

Mark Forsyth – The Elements of Eloquence: Secrets of the Perfect Turn of Phrase

Just as German seems to have a word for just about every feeling or situation, English and Latin seem to have a word for just about every way to use words. Forsyth knows not just how to use English’s many figures of speech, from metonomy to assonance, but he knows their names—most of which this reader has already forgotten again.

He is also very funny. This book is less about improving one’s writing, and more about having fun with language while admiring how crafty some of its best practitioners can be. Forsyth has a way of making fun of Shakespeare while showing how truly talented he was. He also doesn’t confine himself to stuffy classics in his examples, and uses references to popular music and recent movies even younger readers would be familiar with. This book is short, reads easily, and Forsyth’s sly, ever-present humor makes for an entertaining read. Hopefully the reader also gets a sense of how to avoid writing the kind of purple prose Forsyth might mock.

This Week in Ridiculous Regulations

Congress finished the year with a bang. In a two day span the House impeached the president and passed the USMCA trade agreement. Both chambers passed a massive spending bill to fund the government through next September. The 2019 Federal Register also surpassed 70,000 pages. Meanwhile, agencies published new regulations ranging from bunker fuel to irradiated drugs.

On to the data:

  • Last week, 63 new final regulations were published in the Federal Register, after 64 the previous week.
  • That’s the equivalent of a new regulation every two hours and 40 minutes.
  • Federal agencies have issued 2,902 final regulations in 2019. At that pace, there will be 2,974 new final regulations. Last year’s total was 3,367 regulations.
  • Last week, agencies published 447 notices, for a total of 21,266 in 2019. At that pace, there will be 21,787 new notices this year. Last year’s total was 21,656.
  • Last week, 2,064 new pages were added to the Federal Register, after 1,155 pages the previous week.
  • The 2019 Federal Register totals 70,391 pages. It is on pace for 72,115 pages. The 2018 total was 68,302 pages. The all-time record adjusted page count (which subtracts skips, jumps, and blank pages) is 96,994, set in 2016.
  • Rules are called “economically significant” if they have costs of $100 million or more in a given year. Four such rules have been published this year. Five such rules were published in 2018.
  • The running cost tally for 2019’s economically significant regulations currently ranges from savings of $4.39 billion to $4.08 billion, mostly from estimated savings on federal spending. The 2018 total ranges from net costs of $220.1 million to $2.54 billion, depending on discount rates and other assumptions.
  • Agencies have published 65 final rules meeting the broader definition of “significant” so far this year. 2018’s total was 108 significant final rules.
  • So far in 2019, 488 new rules affect small businesses; 21 of them are classified as significant. 2018’s totals were 660 rules affecting small businesses, with 29 of them significant.

Highlights from last week’s new final regulations:

For more data, see “Ten Thousand Commandments” and follow @10KC and @RegoftheDay on Twitter.

Andrew McAfee – More from Less: The Surprising Story of How We Learned to Prosper Using Fewer Resources—and What Happens Next

Andrew McAfee – More from Less: The Surprising Story of How We Learned to Prosper Using Fewer Resources—and What Happens Next

This would be good for an undergraduate economics course. McAfee’s thesis captures the core insights of economic growth and what causes it. He also makes the true but unpopular case that prosperity results in a cleaner environment. Poverty pollutes. In wealthy countries, people can afford to care about environmental quality, and also develop more efficient production processes that cause less harm in the first place. McAfee never uses the term, but economists call this phenomenon the environmental Kuznets curve. Basically, pollution and other harms increase until a country reaches roughly $4,500-$5,000 of per capital GDP. At that level of wealth, people don’t have to worry as much about their next meal will come from, or basics such as sturdy shelter and tolerable sanitation. Children can go to school instead of working on the farm. With those needs mostly being met, people then become interested in next-level wants, which include a clean environment.

McAfee writes a simple, direct style that reads a little bit like an introductory textbook. He also doesn’t go into the nitty-gritty the way similar works by authors like Hans Rosling, Matt Ridley, and others do. This isn’t a bad thing; he’s serving a different niche than they are.

He is quite direct in stating his belief that free markets are the reason most of the world are now on the right side of the environmental Kuznets curve, and that markets are why he is confident enough that improvements will continue. So confident that he is willing to bet his own money that numerous indicators will improve—see his website for more, and to bet against him if you wish. He is willing to wager up to $100,000 of his own money.

Paul Kriwaczek – Babylon: Mesopotamia and the Birth of Civilization

Paul Kriwaczek – Babylon: Mesopotamia and the Birth of Civilization

A survey history of Mesopotamia from about 8,000 years ago until the sixth century B.C., with a special emphasis on Babylon, from its rise around 1800 B.C. to its collapse.

The chapters on cuneiform writing, commerce, the birth of trade, and the Sumerian education are especially fascinating. One of the most common archaeological finds are clay writing tablets that students used for practice. From these, we can glean much about how writing was taught, as well as what was taught. Another useful insight is that Mesopotamian language was a lot like ours. It depended heavily on context and inside cultural knowledge. In our time, a sign with a picture of a car can mean many things—a warning for pedestrians, or to mark a parking spot or a garage, and so on. Many cuneiform words were the same way. Their base-60 numbering system treated decimal places similarly—the only way to tell, say, 26 from 206 or 2,006 was context. One imagines this was grist for many a court case.

The famously severe legal codes of Hammurabi and other Mesopotamian figures had a similar lack of literalism. The more severe punishments, including a horrific precursor to Roman crucifixion, were either written down only to instill fear, or were carried out extremely rarely for the same reason. A Gary Becker-inspired economic analysis of how the severity and frequency of Mesopotamian punishments affected crime rates would make for an interesting historical study, though the data collection problems are rather obvious.

Bill Bryson – A Short History of Nearly Everything

Bill Bryson – A Short History of Nearly Everything

A history of science that is accessible to nearly everyone. This would be an excellent gift for a bright middle schooler or high schooler who is interested in science, or for adults who enjoy trivia. Bryson covers all the main sub-disciplines, including cosmology, geology, chemistry, biology, archaeology, anthropology, and more. He also tells some stories about the scientists behind many major discoveries, but without overdoing it—ahem, Neil Degrasse Tyson. The breadth comes at the expense of depth, but that is not the worst of sins for a book like this. Interested readers can find plenty of additional reading for topics that spark their interest.

Bryson is a bit of a sensationalist, leaning heavily on apocalyptic scenarios wherever possible, from the odds of meteor strikes to catastrophic earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. This worst-first tendency harms his credibility as a narrator and gives off a bit of a boy crying wolf vibe, but one understands the strategy as a way to create excitement for younger people and scientific novices.

In the Media: USMCA

Yesterday’s New York Times notes CEI’s opposition to USMCA:

Free traders have also panned the deal, which aims to encourage North American manufacturing by raising barriers to products made outside the continent. The Competitive Enterprise Institute, a nonprofit public policy organization that advocates limited government, announced that the new agreement’s “trade-unrelated provisions and political giveaways set precedents that could harm future trade agreements for decades to come.”

Full article here. Iain Murray’s and my joint statement opposing USMCA is here.

In the Media: USMCA

The Wall Street Journal‘s Jeffrey Sparshott quotes me in this morning’s Real Time Economics newsletter:

Don’t Call it Nafta

The House of Representatives approved President Trump’s amended North American trade pact on Thursday. The U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, or USMCA, passed by a 385 to 41 vote. The Senate is expected to approve the legislation early next year, after which the president would sign it into law. Mexico’s Senate has approved the deal, but it needs ratification in Canada to enter into force and replace the North American Free Trade Agreement, or Nafta.

The Competitive Enterprise Institute’s Ryan Young: “Its economic impact will be almost too small to measure.”

The newsletter is here. My original statement is here. Iain Murray and I came out against USMCA here.

Carrie Gibson – El Norte: The Epic and Forgotten Story of Hispanic North America

Carrie Gibson – El Norte: The Epic and Forgotten Story of Hispanic North America

The history of North America from the British perspective is a fascinating story. But it’s been done a thousand times. Gibson takes a different approach, visiting the period from the Spanish side. For a fuller picture of North American history than most people get, El Norte would pair well with Bernard Bailyn’s British-focused The Barbarous Years: The Peopling of British North America–The Conflict of Civilizations. Bailyn’s book is a fascinating, if overly detailed, account of the early years on the Eastern seaboard—and the barbarism in his title applies at least as much to the British at least as much as the people they thought barbaric.

But when the British landed at Plymouth Rock, Spanish explorers had already been on the continent for a century. That’s where Gibson come in. She focuses mostly on North America, bringing in South America only where relevant, and also giving some attention to the Caribbean islands, especially Cuba and Puerto Rico. Their interactions with mainland North America have taken many turns over the years, many of which were new to this reader, who is not well-versed in Caribbean history.

For example, the baseball bug bit Cuba early, with the game becoming its national pastime and the island exporting star players as early as the 1920s; Fidel Castro’s passion for the game did not emerge from a vacuum. Today’s Cuban major leaguers, including stars such as Yasiel Puig, Aroldis Chapman, Jose Abreu, and Yoenis Cespedes, are part of a long tradition that predates Cuba’s disastrous revolution that they defected from. Gibson also goes into what Cuban cultural and economic life was like before the revolution. Cuba was well on its way to emerging from a brutal sugar-based economy to one with vibrant business, entertainment, and tourism sectors when the 1957 Revolution turned out the lights, often literally.

Gibson also goes into Puerto Rico’s complicated relationship with the United States that is somehow both close and distant, even today, and the origins of its large expat community in New York City.

The meat of the book dances around from state to state across the southern United States. Gibson spends a lot of time on Louisiana, which spent time in Spanish hands as well as French, as well as in Florida, which remained a Spanish possession even after American independence—Spain and the U.S. were once technically neighbors.

The Southwest also gets its due. The political, ethnic, and cultural boundaries between Mexico and Texas were more fluid back then they are today; today’s border is essentially an accident that stayed in place. There is nothing special about the Rio Grande river, as anyone who has been there will likely tell you. Gibson takes the read from Texas’ Gulf coast through the hill country, and on through New Mexico, Arizona, and California, including the Baja peninsula, from roughly the 16th century up to the present.

Gibson does tie Hispanic-American history somewhat into current events at the vey beginning and end of the book. This makes some sense given the tensions over immigration and nationalism the Trump administration has been stirring up, which will almost certainly outlast it. But Gibson’s focus is more on the history. This is ultimately more effective. Besides being mostly free of off-putting political posturing, Gibson shows that borders, when seen in larger context, are not so sacred. People, language, and culture are fluid, always in motion, and always evolving. The same cannot be said of parochial politics.

Bryan Caplan and Zach Weinersmith – Open Borders: The Science and Ethics of Immigration

Bryan Caplan and Zach Weinersmith – Open Borders: The Science and Ethics of Immigration

A graphic novel about immigration policy, and a superbly done one at that. Caplan, a former professor of mine at George Mason, wrote most of the words. Weinersmith, creator of the Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal web comic, did the artwork and many of the jokes.

This book is aimed at skeptics, and Caplan and Weinsersmith do a much better job of appealing to them than most people do. In some ways, Open Borders is an example of what happens when someone is able to pass an ideological Turing test—a concept Caplan coined in 2011. They are routinely charitable to their opponents, and confront their strongest arguments as their proponents actually present them. This is much more effective than building up straw men and knocking them down, leaving the original argument untouched. It is also more difficult, which is why many people do not bother.

If immigration restrictionists pick up the book—and early sales figures suggest some of them are—Caplan and Weinersmith should allay a lot of peoples’ fears with their calm, accessible presentation that is rigorously backed with data and research (interested readers can consult roughly 30 pages worth of notes at the back of the book). They convey a tone that is light-hearted and serious at the same time, which is not an easy balance to strike. And even if they don’t convince very many people to embrace open borders, the sheer weight of data, theory, philosophy, and morality in their favor should at least push most readers a little bit in their direction at the margin.

Caplan and Weinersmith make a very good team. Hopefully they collaborate again in the future.

This Week in Ridiculous Regulations

Britain held a major election, and the U.S. House of Representatives is set to impeach President Trump. At the same time, Trump is poised for a victory on the USMCA trade agreement, which CEI came out against. Meanwhile, agencies published new regulations ranging from aerosol cans to Philly fireworks.

On to the data:

  • Last week, 64 new final regulations were published in the Federal Register, after 40 the previous week.
  • That’s the equivalent of a new regulation every two hours and 38 minutes.
  • Federal agencies have issued 2,839 final regulations in 2019. At that pace, there will be 2,970 new final regulations. Last year’s total was 3,367 regulations.
  • Last week, agencies published 409 notices, for a total of 20,819 in 2019. At that pace, there will be 21,774 new notices this year. Last year’s total was 21,656.
  • Last week, 1,155 new pages were added to the Federal Register, after 1,258 pages the previous week.
  • The 2019 Federal Register totals 68,324 pages. It is on pace for 71,456 pages. The 2018 total was 68,302 pages. The all-time record adjusted page count (which subtracts skips, jumps, and blank pages) is 96,994, set in 2016.
  • Rules are called “economically significant” if they have costs of $100 million or more in a given year. Four such rules have been published this year. Five such rules were published in 2018.
  • The running cost tally for 2019’s economically significant regulations currently ranges from savings of $4.39 billion to $4.08 billion, mostly from estimated savings on federal spending. The 2018 total ranges from net costs of $220.1 million to $2.54 billion, depending on discount rates and other assumptions.
  • Agencies have published 65 final rules meeting the broader definition of “significant” so far this year. 2018’s total was 108 significant final rules.
  • So far in 2019, 481 new rules affect small businesses; 21 of them are classified as significant. 2018’s totals were 660 rules affecting small businesses, with 29 of them significant.

Highlights from last week’s new final regulations:

For more data, see “Ten Thousand Commandments” and follow @10KC and @RegoftheDay on Twitter.