Forecasters in Proper Context

Whether it’s the local weatherman getting it wrong, or especially some economic shaman predicting the stock market’s next swing, forecasters have a record that doesn’t always outperform chance. This poor record has been known since at least Roman times, as Deirdre McCloskey notes on p. 265 of her 2000 book How to Be Human, Though an Economist:

The early Latin poet Ennius sneered at forecasters “who don’t know the path for themselves yet show the way for others.”

Or, as the philosopher Yogi Berra put it, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

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