Last night the House of Representatives voted on a rare discharge petition, under which a controversial bill can skip the usual committee process and go straight to a floor vote. In this case, the discharged bill is Rep. Stephen Fincher’s Export-Import Bank revival bill. It passed, 246-177, with 62 Republicans joining nearly all Democrats. It was the first successful discharge petition since the McCain-Feingold campaign finance regulation bill. For more on discharge petitions, see my earlier post.
So what happens now? On Tuesday, the House will hold further procedural votes on the Ex-Im bill, which will almost certainly pass. Then it’s off to the Senate, which is unlikely to act on the bill.
So crisis averted? Not quite. Because Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is unlikely to allow a vote on the Fincher bill, reauthorization will instead likely be folded into a must-pass transportation bill. So while Fincher’s discharge petition will likely amount to nothing, it does give Ex-Im beneficiaries a backup plan if they have trouble getting Ex-Im reauthorization into the transportation bill.
For more on why Ex-Im is bad policy, bad politics, and bad economics, see my paper.
Finally, for all the sky-is-falling hyperbole coming from Ex-Im beneficiaries, regular readers will remember that Boeing alone receives nearly half of Ex-Im’s business. Despite Ex-Im’s closure, they recently announced that their earnings were up 25 percent in the third quarter. More than 98 percent of U.S. exports happen without Ex-Im assistance. As with many other companies, Boeing will be just fine without Ex-Im and corruption it enables.