Incumbents in Trouble?

According to a new poll, only 22 percent of respondents intend to vote for their current representative. Nearly 70 percent intend to vote for a challenger.

While this blogger finds the sentiment encouraging, it is likely just bluster. Incumbents will almost certainly continue their usual 90 percent-plus re-election rate. In most cycles, more members retire than are defeated by challengers. The number of retirements is currently in the low 20s, and there will likely be a few more. If the number of incumbent defeats is higher than that, all the better, though it is unlikely.


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