What’s on Tap for Trade in 2019

At noon today, the 116th Congress convened. Over at Fox Business, Iain Murray and I look at what the coming year has in store for the new Congress on trade. The two biggest items are the NAFTA/USMCA vote, which isn’t a big deal, and China, which is:

For Congress, the most important 2019 trade priority is reclaiming the tariff-making authority it delegated away in the 1960s and 1970s. Under the Constitution, only Congress has taxing power. Tariff delegation has long since served its purpose, and should have come back to Congress long ago.

The trade damage done in 2018 will take years to undo. The new NAFTA doesn’t matter much either way, but abandoning a failed tariff strategy is crucial.

The executive branch should rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership and engage the World Trade Organization’s dispute resolution process to encourage reform in China. But Congress has plenty to do, too. The time to start is now.

Read the whole thing here.

Fun Facts about Chopin

Chopin has long been one of my favorite composers. From Alan Walker’s Fryderyk Chopin: A Life and Times, I learned that Chopin’s father Nicolas was a fan of Voltaire, a personal favorite of mine. One of Nicolas’ students, who later became Chopin’s godfather, was Fryderyk Skarbek, an economics professor at Warsaw University.

Later in life, Chopin would live in Paris’ Hotel Lambert, where Voltaire once lived. Designed by the same architect who remodeled Versailles under Louis XIV, the building was partially destroyed by fire in 2013.

Roger Crowley – City of Fortune: How Venice Ruled the Seas

Roger Crowley – City of Fortune: How Venice Ruled the Seas

Covering roughly 1200 to the mid-15th century, Crowley covers Venice’s rise and fall as one of the world’s major maritime trading powers. He writes vividly, quotes often from primary sources, and evokes an outward-looking, freewheeling, audacious cultural attitude in Venice–very different from the rest of Europe at that time.

That culture, more than a key geographical location, is a major reason why Venice was the richest city in Europe during this period. It fought with Genoa for that honor, sometimes violently.

Crowley also develops an important East-meets-West theme. Venice was involved in the Fourth Crusade, which resulted in the sacking of Constantinople in the early 1200s. To give an idea of the Crusades’ bumbling nature, Constantinople was a Christian city at the time.

Tragic comedy aside, Venetian traders were some of Europe’s only ambassadors to the Near and Far East during this time. They brought back spices, fabrics, and other goods, sadly including slaves. By the 1400s, as the neighboring Byzantines were falling to the Ottomans, Venice found itself dealing with a new commercial and political rival.

Meanwhile, as the rest of Europe cracked open the Great Chain of Being and the Renaissance encouraged more modern attitudes to commerce and progress, Venice entered a period of relative decline as other cities began to catch up and even outshine it during the Renaissance.

Ronald Coase and Ning Wang – How China Became Capitalist

Ronald Coase and Ning Wang – How China Became Capitalist

China’s post-Mao transformation has been incredible, but suffers from a lack of policy certainty. Fits and starts, stops, and reverses happen at seemingly random times and places, making long-term investments extremely risky. More importantly, China’s growth is ultimately limited by a lack of a viable marketplace of ideas, both in politics and in business. If China liberalizes, its future is bright. if not, then not.

Coase was 101 years old when this book was published. He was a fully contributing coauthor; his intellectual fingerprints are all over this book, from pointing out the limitations of blackboard economics to his love of Adam Smith’s Theory of Moral Sentiments. An incredible accomplishment, and a useful one for this analyst.

Arthur C. Clarke – Expedition to Earth

Arthur C. Clarke – Expedition to Earth

A collection of short stories first published in 1953. Most of them either raise philosophical questions or warn of the dangers of nuclear weapons. The closing story, “The Sentinel,” is an early version of what would later become 2001.

This Week in Ridiculous Regulations

The shutdown continued all through Christmas week. But because the Federal Register works on a few days lag for many of its publications, it still had plenty of activity. It will also continue daily publication throughout the shutdown. But if the shutdown lasts much longer, the Register will likely go into a near hibernation, with daily page and rule counts possibly going into single digits.

The net impact of the shutdown will likely be near-zero. Notices and regulations would be published at different times, rather than not at all. Federal employees typically receive back pay for the time they are idled. There is also the matter that roughly 75 percent of the federal government is unaffected by the shutdown. With that context out of the way, new rules range from the last week range from kiwi fees to hydropower recreation.

On to the data:

  • Last week, 92 new final regulations were published in the Federal Register, after 82 the previous week.
  • That’s the equivalent of a new regulation every one hour and 50 minutes.
  • Federal agencies have issued 3,372 final regulations in 2018. At that pace, there will be 3,386 new final regulations. Last year’s total was 3,236 regulations.
  • Last week, 1,599 new pages were added to the Federal Register, after 1,641 pages the previous week.
  • The 2018 Federal Register totals 67,676 pages. It is on pace for 67,949 pages. The all-time record adjusted page count (which subtracts skips, jumps, and blank pages) is 96,994, set in 2016.
  • Rules are called “economically significant” if they have costs of $100 million or more in a given year. Six such rules have been published this year, one in the last week—the first since June 12.
  • The running compliance cost tally for 2018’s economically significant regulations ranges from $220.1 million to $2.54 billion. Until last week, the net costs were actually net savings.
  • Agencies have published 108 final rules meeting the broader definition of “significant” so far this year.
  • So far in 2018, 656 new rules affect small businesses; 29 of them are classified as significant.

Highlights from selected final rules published last week:

For more data, see Ten Thousand Commandments and follow @10KC and @RegoftheDay on Twitter.

Arthur C. Clarke – Imperial Earth

Arthur C. Clarke – Imperial Earth

The protagonist was raised on a small colony on Saturn’s moon Titan, and is one of its political leaders. He makes a trip to Earth for diplomatic business and while there, happens upon a scientific discovery that could change civilization forever. The cultural dynamics, technology, and travel in the early parts are thought-provoking, as is the meditation of the ethics of human cloning. The story also has the fun quality of a murder mystery in the later parts.

Arthur C. Clarke –Childhood’s End

Arthur C. Clarke –Childhood’s End

This book has never been made into a movie, though the opening scene clearly inspired Independence Day. From there Clarke takes a very different path from Will Smith and company. The storyline serves as a vehicle to ponder humankind’s place in the universe,and what interspecies personal, political, and hierarchical relations might be like. The book also contains a bit of the paranormal, such as telepathy, premonitions, and collective memories. Years later Clarke was quick to disavow these aspects of the story, reminding readers that this is, after all, a work of fiction.

Bryan Caplan – The Case Against Education

Bryan Caplan – The Case Against Education

Or rather, against more formal classroom schooling than necessary. The title is a misnomer; in a way this book is a data-backed confirmation of Mark Twain’s quip about the difference between schooling and education.

Once students get past basic math and literacy, most of what they learn in the classroom, whether history or calculus, is useless in most jobs and unused in most lives. College degrees are less about building human capital and more about signaling—a credential certifying a certain amount of intelligence, work ethic, and conformity.

Tamping back on signaling-only degrees would reduce “credential inflation” and spare millions of people from crippling debt and hundreds of hours of drudgery. At the same time, Caplan, who deeply values education, encourages opening the life of the mind in other, higher-quality ways—good conversation, books on interesting subjects, movies, culture, online courses, travel, and more.

An Executive Order to Shine Light on Dark Matter

Over at The Hill, Wayne Crews and I make the case for an executive order that would limit executive power. It’s more plausible than it sounds:

There is precedent for such executive action. Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama all issued executive orders to increase transparency and ensure that federal agencies follow better rulemaking procedures…

An executive order can set a positive precedent that Congress can later expand upon and codify. Such an executive order should strengthen disclosure requirements for guidance documents, which are not always made public. They should be made available in a single location and a standardized easily searchable format. After all, people cannot comply with regulations they do not know about.

Read the whole piece here. Wayne develops the idea more fully in his recent study “A Partial Eclipse of the Administrative State.”