Regulatory Relief Needs Better Transparency

Getting rid of #NeverNeeded regulations is one of the most important policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The short-term benefits are obvious. But the long-term benefits are arguably more important, for both long-term growth and resilience against the next crisis. My colleague Alex Reinauer and I have a short piece over at RealClearPolicy looking at just how much deregulation has happened in the wake of COVID. It’s actually very difficult to tell how much there is, due to a lack of transparency:

Transparency is important, especially during a crisis. Agencies need to do more than look like they are “doing something” in response to COVID. Congress and the president need to ensure agencies follow existing transparency requirements. Additional safeguards such as annual agency regulatory report cards will keep agencies more honest during this and future crises. Then policy makers and the public can judge for themselves what agencies are faring, and how they can do it better. It’s a lot more cost effective than another $1 trillion “stimulus.”

These transparency problems are a system-level problem that needs to be addressed. Agencies need to follow existing transparency guidelines. People need to know what they are doing, how much it costs, and what agencies are doing to improve their work. As we often say at CEI, institutions matter. It is not enough to reform this or that rule. The larger institutions that create those rules also need to be reformed.

Read the whole piece here. For more reform ideas, visit neverneeded.cei.org.

James Madison on Why Politics Ruins Everything

Politics has a way of ruining everything. Even kind and intelligent people go through an instant metamorphosis when the conversation changes to politics. Their body language tenses up. Their word choices include more intensifiers. They say horrible things about strangers they would never say in a different context. Their mental processes change to in-group-vs.-out-group mode, as though we were hunter-gatherers again.

And this sudden intensity can turn on and off almost instantly, like a light switch, as the conversation veers from topic to topic. It’s certainly unpleasant, and possibly unhealthy.

This very human foible may be what inspired James Madison to write in Federalist No. 55, “Had every Athenian citizen been a Socrates, every Athenian assembly would still have been a mob.”

The median voter is not a wise person, at least about politics. But even if he was, the effects partisan politics has on the brain can shut down rational thought in even the best and brightest.

Happy Election Day, everyone.

This Week in Ridiculous Regulations

The Los Angeles Dodgers won baseball’s World Series. GDPnumbers bounced back in a big way, though the economy is still smaller than a year ago. The presidential election is tomorrow, and all those infernal campaign ads will finally, mercifully, stop. The Senate is out of session until November 9. Meanwhile, regulatory agencies issued new regulations ranging from egg product inspections to importing retail meth ingredients.

On to the data:

  • Last week, 55 new final regulations were published in the Federal Register, after 62 the previous week.
  • That’s the equivalent of a new regulation every three hours and three minutes.
  • Federal agencies have issued 2,749 final regulations in 2020. At that pace, there will be 3,257 new final regulations. Last year’s total was 2,964 regulations.
  • There were 39 proposed regulations in the Federal Register last week, for a total of 1,820 on the year. At that pace, there will be 2,156 new proposed regulations in 2020. Last year’s total was 2,169 proposed regulations.
  • Last week, agencies published 474 notices, for a total of 18,764 in 2020. At that pace, there will be 22,232 new notices this year. Last year’s total was 21,804.
  • Last week, 1,486 new pages were added to the Federal Register, after 1,439 pages the previous week.
  • The 2020 Federal Register totals 69,118 pages. It is on pace for 81,894 pages. The 2019 total was 70,938 pages. The all-time record adjusted page count (which subtracts skips, jumps, and blank pages) is 96,994, set in 2016.
  • Rules are called “economically significant” if they have costs of $100 million or more in a given year. Four such rules have been published this year. Four such rules were published in 2019.
  • The running cost tally for 2020’s economically significant regulations ranges from net savings of between $1.19 billion and $4.19 billion. 2019’s total ranges from net savings of $350 million to $650 million, mostly from estimated savings on federal spending. The exact number depends on discount rates and other assumptions.
  • Agencies have published 63 final rules meeting the broader definition of “significant” so far this year. 2019’s total was 66 significant final rules.
  • So far in 2020, 542 new rules affect small businesses; 24 of them are classified as significant. 2019’s totals were 501 rules affecting small businesses, with 22 of them significant.

Highlights from last week’s new regulations:

For more data, see Ten Thousand Commandments and follow @10KC and @RegoftheDay on Twitter.

Economics Has a Moment of Zen

Frank Knight (1885-1972) was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics. Three of his students won Nobel prizes: George Stigler, Milton Friedman, and James Buchanan.

One of Knight’s most famous quotes is that “To call a situation hopeless is to call it ideal.”

This is because neither can be improved upon. Almost nothing in the world is ideal; this turns out to be a good thing.

America Really Is Revolutionary

Several scholars I respect, including Daniel Hannan in his 2013 book Inventing Freedom: How the English-Speaking Peoples Made the Modern World, have argued that the American Revolution was more of an attempt to return to traditional English principles, than to create something new.

He has a point. John Locke’s influence on the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution is obvious. The Founders also drew on Magna Carta, the 1688 Glorious Revolution, the rationalism of Francis Bacon and Isaac Newton, and the larger common law tradition.

Even so, this Burkean interpretation has always sat uneasily with me. I’ve struggled to articulate why, beyond a simple feeling that liberal revolutions–liberal in the original, correct sense–are generally not conservative.

Clemson University historian C. Bradley Thompson puts a finger on it in his 2019 book America’s Revolutionary Mind: A Moral History of the American Revolution and the Declaration that Defined It. Here is a passage from page 69, quoting from a June 5, 1824 letter from Thomas Jefferson to John Cartwright:

Rather than searching into “musty records,” hunting up “royal parchments,” or investigating “the laws and institutions of a semi-barbarous ancestry,” the Americans appealed to the great principles “of nature, and found them engraved on our hearts.” The Revolution, according to Jefferson, presented the Americans with “an album on which we were free to write what we pleased.”

These are not the sentiments of someone who saw himself as defending tradition. Or, as the (English!) comedian Michael Palin put it in Monty Python and the Holy Grail:

Listen. Strange women, lying in ponds, distributing swords, is no basis for a system of government!

Record GDP Numbers Need Context: Good news, but More to Do

Most of the talk about today’s GDP numbers will be related to the election. It shouldn’t. Presidents don’t run the economy; hundreds of millions of ordinary people do. Fortunately, the news is pretty good. Economic activity is most of the way back to pre-pandemic levels, but not all the way. Policy makers can help the momentum by continuing to waive never-needed regulations that are blocking opportunities for workers and entrepreneurs who are still finding new ways to adapt to life under COVID.

There are two GDP numbers being bandied about today: 33.1 percent and 7.4 percent. The 33.1 percent figure is how much the economy would grow if the third quarter’s pace were to continue for a full year. This is the annualized number, and it will almost certainly not happen. While the annualized 33.1 percent number has its uses, it is easy to use in a misleading way. Readers should be wary of people cheerleading it as a new record. While technically true, the record doesn’t mean much. The economy is still slightly smaller than it was year ago.

There was a similar confusion surrounding last quarter’s 31.4 percent drop, which set its own record as the worst ever. Again, that was the full-year projected pace at that quarter’s growth rate. It is not even close to what actually happened. The very next quarter had record growth and canceled out most of it.

The 7.4 percent number is the more realistic number to use, though the same caveat applies about its record status. This is how much the economy grew since the previous quarter. Since 7.4 percent growth happened right after a 7.2 percent drop, it means the economy is almost back where it was in 2020’s first quarter, when the pandemic began. Yet, it is not quite all the way back, because the 7.4 increase started from a smaller baseline than the second quarter’s 7.2 percent decline did.

Today’s good news is welcome, but it doesn’t mean the economy is going gangbusters. Businesses that have difficulty with physical distancing will continue to struggle. These include restaurants, retailers, travel, tourism, and live entertainment. Their employees will struggle as well.

Policy makers can help by continuing to find and remove never-needed regulations that block people from adapting to new circumstances and starting new businesses and by reforming system-level processes that keep pumping out harmful regulations.

For ideas on which never-needed regulations to reform, see neverneeded.cei.org.

New CEI Paper: Antitrust Policy in Europe, Lessons for America

Today, CEI is releasing a new paper on antitrust policy in the European Union by Swiss competition commissioner Henrique Schneider. Europe’s approach to competition policy, as antitrust policy is known there, tends to be more active than in the United States. Schneider provides some useful lessons for policy makers in the U.S. as enforcement ramps up on this side of the Atlantic.

One lesson is a version of the relevant market fallacy, the EU’s bizarre distinction between online and offline businesses. A second lesson is that reversing the burden of proof in court cases is a bad idea—which the EU does to many online businesses in competition cases. A third lesson is that antitrust policy can have protectionist effects, even if that is not the intention.

With a Google case already filed, a Facebook case likely on the way, and other companies such as Amazon and Apple also being investigated, Schneider’s description of European policy gives an example of what the U.S. should avoid.

Strangely, European antitrust policy treats companies differently based on whether or not their business model is online-based. Nearly every business is at some in-between point on the spectrum between being entirely online and entirely offline. More fundamentally, being online or offline does not change the nature of business transactions. People exchange value through buying and selling—and that’s it. Whether they are done in person or on a computer does not matter. Exchange is exchange.

Companies also move along the spectrum over time. Many traditional brick-and-mortar retailers are expanding their online presence, especially during the COVID-19 era. Amazon, on the other hand, is expanding its offline presence through its Whole Foods grocery stores and experiments with retail stores.

The real purpose of the EU’s online-offline distinction is likely not accuracy. It is to define a company’s market more narrowly. This makes it easier to find a monopoly. Left unsaid, of course, is that such a narrow monopoly does not cover the entire relevant market. This is another version of the relevant market fallacy.

That’s the first lesson. The second lesson concerns the burden of proof. For antitrust purposes, the EU’s online-offline distinction determines who bears the burden of proof. In most liberal countries, the accused are innocent until proven guilty. For digital businesses in EU competition cases, the burden is reversed. They are presumed guilty unless they can prove their innocence.

This is where antitrust policy unexpectedly intersects with trade policy. This is Schneider’s third lesson. Europe and the U.S. are already involved in a years-long trade spat, about which I’ve written here. The result so far has been tariffs added to more than $10 billion of goods from both sides. Schneider shows how, intentionally or not, antitrust enforcement can raise trade barriers without raising tariffs.

Most of the EU’s competition cases against digital companies have been against American companies such as Microsoft and Google. By fining companies, forcing product alterations, and other penalties, one effect of EU competition policy is to make EU-based technology firms relatively more competitive. In absolute terms, the market becomes less competitive. One company has been taken down, rather than another company building itself up. At best, this policy is misguided. At worst, it is a form of corporate welfare and trade protectionism.

As both Europe and the U.S. embark on a new era of more aggressive antitrust enforcement, officials on both sides should learn those three lessons about false distinctions and the relevant market fallacy, the burden of proof, and protectionist effects. Not only should the United States not be like Europe on antitrust matters, neither should Europe.

Schneider’s full paper is here. Wayne Crews’s and my paper on U.S. antitrust law is here. CEI’s dedicated antitrust website is antitrust.cei.org.

On the Radio: the Google Antitrust Case

Last week I appeared on Jim Blasingame’s Small Business Radio to talk about the Google antitrust case and competition policy more generally. Audio of our conversation is here.

A Political Strategy that Is Effective, yet Unwise

Louis-Phillipe I was the last king of France. He reigned from 1830 to 1840. Victor Hugo observed of him on p. 862 of the Julie Rose translation of Les Miserables that part of his political adroitness came from

“frightening France with Europe and frightening Europe with France [and] prizing domination more than authority and authority more than dignity.”

Two centuries later the tactic remains effective. Just sub in the in-groups and out-groups of the moment for France and Europe. Yet it remains unwise, as both the end of Louis-Phillipe’s reign and the policy results of contemporary politicians makes clear.

This Week in Ridiculous Regulations

In the news last week, the Justice Department filed an antitrust case against Google. It is the highest-profile antitrust case since the 1998-2002 Microsoft case. There was another presidential debate, this time featuring a mute button. The OSIRIS-Rex spacecraft landed on an asteroid 200 million miles away, collected a rock sample, and is now returning to Earth. A New Yorker journalist took out his Toobin during a Zoom call, while Rudy Giuliani got in trouble for apparently almost doing something similar. Meanwhile, regulatory agencies issued new regulations ranging from allulose to off-road vehicles.

On to the data:

  • Last week, 62 new final regulations were published in the Federal Register, after 71 the previous week.
  • That’s the equivalent of a new regulation every two hours and 43 minutes.
  • Federal agencies have issued 2,694 final regulations in 2020. At that pace, there will be 3,269 new final regulations. Last year’s total was 2,964 regulations.
  • There were 37 proposed regulations in the Federal Register last week, for a total of 1,781 for the year. At that pace, there will be 2,161 new proposed regulations in 2020. Last year’s total was 2,169 proposed regulations.
  • Last week, agencies published 441 notices, for a total of 18,290 in 2020. At that pace, there will be 22,197 new notices this year. Last year’s total was 21,804.
  • Last week, 1,439 new pages were added to the Federal Register, after 1,823 pages the previous week.
  • The 2020 Federal Register totals 67,619 pages. It is on pace for 82,062 pages. The 2019 total was 70,938 pages. The all-time record adjusted page count (which subtracts skips, jumps, and blank pages) is 96,994, set in 2016.
  • Rules are called “economically significant” if they have costs of $100 million or more in a given year. Four such rules have been published this year. Four such rules were published in 2019.
  • The running cost tally for 2020’s economically significant regulations ranges from net savings of between $1.19 billion and $4.19 billion. 2019’s total ranges from net savings of $350 million to $650 million, mostly from estimated savings on federal spending. The exact number depends on discount rates and other assumptions.
  • Agencies have published 60 final rules meeting the broader definition of “significant” so far this year. 2019’s total was 66 significant final rules.
  • So far in 2020, 532 new rules affect small businesses; 21 of them are classified as significant. 2019’s totals were 501 rules affecting small businesses, with 22 of them significant.

Highlights from last week’s new regulations:

For more data, see Ten Thousand Commandments and follow @10KC and @RegoftheDay on Twitter.