Category Archives: Uncategorized

The Spectrum Case against AB5

California’s Assembly Bill 5 (AB5) is intended to classify more independent contractors as formal employees. The goal is for workers to get higher wages and benefits. It is aimed mostly at rideshare and food delivery companies like Uber, Lyft, and GrubHub, but thousands of other workers are losing their jobs in other fields from journalism to entertainment to business consultants. These unintended consequences are almost exactly what Ryan Radia predicted in a CEI study published shortly before AB5 came into effect.

Part of AB5’s problem is that it comes from a fundamental misunderstanding of the labor market. It treats workers as either contractors or formal employees, but that is not an either/or question. The labor market is a wide-ranging spectrum, not a simple binary. There are all kinds of in-betweens, nuances, and complications.

AB5 uses what is called an ABC test to determine if a worker is an independent contractor or a formal employee. It consists of three questions:

  1. How closely is each worker supervised or directed? Do they check in with a boss every day? Or do they work mostly on their own and have wide discretion on how to do their job?
  2. Is their work part of the company’s core business? For an Uber driver, the answer is yes. For an accountant or a maintenance worker, maybe not.
  3. Is the hiring company the contractor’s sole or dominant customer? Is the job mostly in the contractor’s area of specialty or expertise?

The bill text is vaguely worded. In practice, nearly any freelancer qualifies as a formal employee under AB5. But a lot of job arrangements are somewhere in between.

Legislators have come up with two categories to describe a spectrum with countless categories. AB5 is a clunky piece of legislation, and thousands of workers are paying the price.

Take actors, for a classic California example. Acting is a classic gig-oriented job. But some actors have steady gigs. Filming a one-off movie or commercial is almost surely in the independent contractor category. But what if an actor has repeat dealings with the same studio? In the old days, many actors had exclusive contracts with a studio, and were likely employees under most reasonable definitions. But what if an actor has a non-exclusive contract but still appears in multiple films in the same movie franchise, like the Marvel Cinematic Universe? Where should that fall on the ABC test? It could go either way. Under AB5, politicians make the decision, not the employee.

What if an actor works on two or more unrelated films with different producers and directors, but that are produced by the same studio? Or multiple movies with the same production team, but released by different studios? Are those treated differently than the Marvel movie actor under the ABC test? Workers don’t get to make that choice under AB5.

What if an actor becomes a regular go-to person for an advertising agency and does regular commercials for them, but never signs a contract and does other acting work, too? At what point on this broad spectrum does the actor pass from one category to the other? It will take years of case-by-case political decisions, and likely many lawsuits to give clarity to AB5’s broad wording. Many workers just don’t have the time or money to be without work while these new problems wind through the court system.

And it’s more than Hollywood actors. The Los Angeles Times reports about how AB5 is affecting fine artists:

We received more than 120 responses from artists across California — jazz and classical musicians, directors of arts nonprofits, magicians, costume designers, actors, a burlesque dancer and freelance food stylist, among others.

The overwhelming majority said AB5 is hurting their careers. Many are unsure how to comply with the law. Others are cutting back on programming or canceling services because of the cost required to convert independent contractors to employees.

This is the same spectrum problem. Rather than trying to fit real-world people into tidy regulatory categories, policy should allow workers to choose their own work arrangements.

The old workplace ideal of the 1950s doesn’t apply in the 2020s. Back then, the ideal was to have a Monday-to-Friday job, first shift, always at the same office, with everyone on the same company insurance and pension plan. And where possible, the gig was often intended to be for life, or at least until retirement.

Today’s workers want more diverse choices than their parents and grandparents had. Some people like the traditional model; it’s still there for them. Other people like being able to work from home or from a café some days. Other people like the kinds of jobs available in big cities like New York, but don’t necessarily want to live there. According to GlobalWorkplaceAnalytics.com, the number of telecommuters increased 173 percent from 2005 to 2019.

Not everyone wants to work traditional hours. For people with young kids or other family responsibilities, or who are in school, that is often not possible. Other workers do want a 40-hour schedule, but prefer to work four 10-hour days instead of five eight-hour days to get an extra day at home with kids.

Many rideshare drivers are retirees who want to have something to do, but don’t want scheduled hours. Others are people who are between jobs and use ridesharing as a way to make ends meet while they look for their next 9-to-5 gig. AB5’s rigid categorization hurts these workers at various places along the contractor-employee spectrum.

Other workers want more flexibility with their benefits. Don’t like the company health insurance plan? Would you prefer a different retirement savings plan? Tough, say AB5 supporters. Some workers prefer higher wages with fewer benefits. Other workers prefer the opposite. It is much more difficult for employers to accommodate diverse preferences under AB5.

That’s the main reason why independent contracting is becoming more popular. The old model doesn’t fit everybody, so everybody shouldn’t be fit into it. Contractors can choose an insurance and retirement plan that fits their family’s needs and that they can take with them wherever their career takes them. Under the traditional model, if you lose your job, you lose your insurance at the worst possible time. Formal employees who frequently change jobs have to endure hours of unnecessary paperwork changing benefit plans. Independent contractors are spared those headaches.

Californians are learning the hard way that the labor market is a diverse spectrum, not a simplistic two-lump model of contractors and formal employees. Unfortunately, the rest of the country might soon  copy California’s mistake. New York is mulling its own version of AB5. The House of Representatives recently passed the PRO Act, which contains a federal version of AB5’s ABC test. After seeing California’s experiment, hopefully legislators will reconsider.

Antitrust Enforcement in 4-D

Antitrust regulators have long concerned themselves with horizontal and vertical competition, as well as the depth of market concentration. Now they are entering the fourth dimension: time.

The Wall Street Journal reports that “The Federal Trade Commission on Tuesday ordered Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., Microsoft Corp., and Google owner Alphabet Inc. to provide detailed information about their acquisitions of fledgling firms over the past 10 years.” These deals, which regulators approved at the time, might be undone after the fact.

This is likely illegal. Both federal and state governments are prohibited from making ex post facto laws punishing past actions that were legal when committed. This is a complicated legal question, however. Antitrust law usually comes in the form of judicial decisions, not congressional legislation. The Sherman Act, for example, is only two pages long. Its use of key terms is so vague that judges have been defining and redefining those terms at will for more than a century. In an antitrust case, it is not enough to have truth, justice, and the merits on your side. You must also have the judge.

If regulators follow through with their ex post facto threats and judges agree, they will create enormous uncertainty in the mergers and acquisitions market. Buyers risk prosecution if a deal works out better than expected. The potential chilling effect on competitive behavior is obvious.

Moreover, many of the technologies from years-old acquisitions are so thoroughly merged with the buyer’s operations that unwinding the deals is simply unfeasible. It would be like trying to turn a book back into a tree.

The whole scheme highlights fundamental problems with antitrust law. To see why, let’s step back and take a larger four-dimensional view.

Time

Companies have long risked prosecution for both present and future behavior. But to reach back into the past ex post facto is something new. For example, if a company’s present size is too big for regulators’ tastes, they might break it up. That in-the-moment concern motivated Standard Oil’s 1911 breakup despite its declining market share. It also ended the government’s protection of AT&T’s monopoly in 1984, when regulators decided to allow competition, although in a weird, top-down way. Those cases did not create new offenses out of years-ago actions that were legally permissible at the time.

Antitrust regulators are also concerned with the future. If a company is doing nothing wrong now but might do something bad in the future, some regulators believe they have cause to act now. This is called the incipiency doctrine. For example, if Sprint and T-Mobile merge, will the wireless market become too concentrated, leading to potential future bad behavior? Regulators asked the question. Courts said no, and my colleague Jessica Melugin agrees. Other mergers have been blocked because of possible future effects, as has happened twice with Staples and Office Depot.

Now the distant past is coming into play. Over the last decade, the bigger tech companies, such as Google, Facebook, and Amazon, have bought out as many as 400 startups that had developed promising new products, technologies, or business models. Many of the deals fell below the minimum dollar-value threshold for an antitrust investigation. Regulators approved all of the deals they did examine.

Most of these deals ended up being duds; the rule of thumb is a 90 percent failure rate. But after a decade or so, some of the acquisitions turned out to be important to the bigger companies’ success. Facebook’s 2012 acquisition of Instagram is one example. As Facebook’s primary user base gets older and grayer, Instagram is keeping the company relevant with younger people. Countless algorithms and other under-the-hood technologies that now power different parts of Google and Amazon’s operations were originally developed at acquired firms. Now regulators are mulling undoing these past deals, which were previously approved.

The Horizontal, Vertical, and Depth Dimensions

Regulators should instead use a simpler framework with fewer dimensions. To show why, it is worth asking basic questions about business organization. What if Google or Facebook had come up with the successful technologies in-house, rather than having bought them from elsewhere? Would that be an offense? If not, why should developing them via buyouts be treated differently? This is similar to the lesson from economist David Friedman’s Iowa Car Crop story. It is a distinction without a difference.

My theory is that these sorts of multi-dimensional concerns are rationalizations that distract from the main issue: size. In our extended (and imperfect, but useful) analogy, this is equivalent to the depth dimension. Arguments about ex post facto enforcement or different horizontal and vertical arrangements are, in the end, really about size, or the depth of market competition. What appears to be four-dimensional regulation actually concerns one dimension.

Distractions from the Real Issue: Size

Many members of the Neo-Brandeisian antitrust revival are open about believing, like Justice Louis Brandeis, that large size is an inherent antitrust offense. The arguments investigators are floating about different past, present, and future actions, or about different places along the horizontal and vertical dimensions, are only intended to apply to companies of a certain size or to markets with fewer than a certain number of competitors.

Even the number of competitors in a market is a problematic measure. (I earlier gave two reasons why here and here.) A third way to look at it is this: In a way, startup tech entrepreneurs eager to sell out are similar to independent contractors, similar to the way a company might outsource its payroll to an outside contractor or a family might outsource household repairs to a handyman. Sometimes doing something in-house is better. Sometimes it’s not. Every case is different. But doing something in-house means fewer, and larger, firms in the market. Outsourcing means more, and smaller, firms. One arrangement is not inherently more competitive than the other, yet antitrust regulators treat them differently. This is not a coherent position.

Circumstances also change over time. Maybe a company’s in-house R&D team loses a key person or is stuck in a rut. Sometimes a fresh perspective from an outsider might be helpful. Maybe a contractor is too far away from her customers to communicate with them effectively. Maybe a company is having trouble coordinating multiple outside contractors. In these cases, bringing the contractors in-house could make the companies more competitive, even as it reduces the number of firms in the market.

Competition Is a Spectrum and a Process, Not an On/Off Switch

Even within the outside contractor model, there are lots of places along this vertical dimension. Maybe one company contracts with a startup. Another licenses a startup’s technology and brings it in-house but doesn’t buy the company itself. Maybe the license is exclusive; maybe it isn’t. A third company hires the outside person with the bright idea but doesn’t buy her company. Maybe that person’s team and their equipment are necessary to make the most of that idea. If that’s the case, maybe a buyout is easier, and likely cheaper, than hiring away one or two key people. Maybe another company makes overtures to a horizontal competitor or certain of its employees.

Here we find there are angles between the purely horizontal and the purely vertical. Again, competition is not a binary switch, fully on or fully off. It is a spectrum with all kinds of in-betweens. Competition is a complicated, evolving process with nuances that don’t neatly fit into categories.

Every case is different. Nobody knows in advance which possible course of action is the right one—or if there even is a right one. Remember, as noted, mergers have about a 90 percent failure rate—and each and every one was entered into with confidence.

Here is another way to put it. A company with in-house counsel has essentially bought its own law firm. For antitrust purposes, how is that conceptually different from using an outside attorney? These are two different places on the spectrum of vertical integration, but they irrelevant to market competition.

There are similar concerns for the horizontal spectrum. Some cases require multiple attorneys. What if attorneys from competing firms collaborate on the same side of a case? What if some mix of in-house and outside attorneys work together? The result is the same. People or companies who need legal services buy them in the manner of their choosing. That is not a proper antitrust issue.

Same goes with the mishmash of mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures that have characterized the tech industry for decades. Regulators are only making incoherent multidimensional arguments now because the companies are bigger on the one dimension they really care about: size.

Conclusion

Whatever names we give to the ways big and small companies interact with each other, the end results are not that different. Someone sells something and someone else buys it. The sellers might get paid as employees, vendors, or contractors, or maybe they just take the money and move on to something else.

Why some of these arrangements are considered legitimate antitrust questions while others are not is an important question. Regulators have not given a compelling answer, nor are they likely to.

A final point worth remembering: The reason firms exist in the first place is not to enable or restrict competition. It is to reduce transaction costs. There is no magic number of firms that accomplishes that goal. And if there were, it would constantly move as tastes and technology change. It would certainly move faster than the speed of antitrust litigation. Competition is an ongoing discovery process.

Antitrust regulation fails along all four dimensions—the vertical, the horizontal, depth, and time. It should be entirely repealed. At the very least, the Justice Department should immediately stop its search for ex post facto offenses against Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft.

For more problems with antitrust regulation, see Wayne Crews’ and my paper, “The Case against Antitrust Law.”

Alfred Marshall on Free Trade

Here is a gem of a quotation by Alfred Marshall on free trade, unearthed by Doug Irwin on p. 221 of his 1996 book Against the Tide: An Intellectual History of Free Trade: 

“[Free trade] is not a device, but the absence of any device. A device contrived to deal with any set of conditions must become obsolete when they change. The simplicity and naturalness of Free Trade–that is, the absence of any device–may continue to outweigh the series of different small gains which could be obtained by any manipulation of tariffs, however scientific and astute.”

In the News: Trade Policy in 2020

The Washington Examiner‘s Sean Higgins quotes me in a piece looking at possible developments in trade policy in 2020, now that China Phase One and USMCA are finished:

Ryan Young, a trade policy expert with the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, nevertheless sees the threat of renewed trade wars as low for the foreseeable future. The administration has an interest in not stirring things up too much before the fall elections, he said. “Of course, with this administration, things can change with a single tweet,” he said.

Read the whole thing here.

In the News: China Phase One Trade Deal

I am briefly quoted in a lengthy Washington Times story about the Phase One trade deal with China that was signed this week.

Fred P. Hochberg – Trade Is Not a Four-Letter Word: How Six Everyday Products Make the Case for Trade

Review of Fred P. Hochberg, Trade Is Not a Four-Letter Word: How Six Everyday Products Make the Case for Trade (New York: Avid Reader Press / Simon & Schuster, 2020)

Hochberg, who headed the Export-Import Bank from 2009-2017, has written a surprisingly good book on trade. Few economists have favorable views of Ex-Im. The agency’s longstanding corruption problems, cozy relationships with Boeing and other large companies, and its mercantilist economics make it almost indefensible on the merits (see my papers here and here). As with many ex-government officials, Hochberg is a much better economist when he doesn’t have to play politics.

Unfortunately, Hochberg says little in the book about his eight years at Ex-Im. This would have made for fascinating reading. It would have been useful to learn, in extended form, about Hochberg’s views on how Ex-Im works in practice, how he would defend the agency, and where he would criticize it.

Hochberg also presided over the most eventful chapter in Ex-Im’s 85-year history, which included its authorization lapse in 2014-15, when the agency practically shut down. Even after its eventual reauthorization, Ex-Im operated at a severely limited capacity for the remainder of Hochberg’s tenure. The Senate refused to confirm the new board members needed to approve large transactions. Ex-Im did not return to full capacity until 2019.

While Hochberg does refer to his old job several times, it is usually in passing, and never in detail. He does not once mention the great post-2014 Ex-Im political controversy.

By sticking instead to broader-brush trade policy and avoiding anything too controversial, Trade Is Not a Four-Letter Word comes across as a subtle job application for a higher-level position in the next Democratic administration, such as Commerce Secretary or U.S. Trade Representative. If the Ex-Im version of Fred Hochberg took such a job, trade policy would likely continue to be ridden with special-interest handouts and trade-unrelated inititatives. If, instead, the Fred Hochberg who wrote this book took office, trade policy would be not perfect, but it would be pretty good, and certainly an improvement over the last few administrations.

Unfortunately, I have a hunch which side of Hochberg would prevail if he re-entered politics.

Like many politicians who also know better, Hochberg almost bends over backward trying to argue that the American middle and lower-middle classes are net losers from trade. These are America’s largest voting blocs, and many of them live in swing states.

This is a difficult long-term case to make when living standards by almost every measure, from life expectancy to average height to access to air-conditioning, internet, and other technologies, have been improving for both rich and poor for more than a century. In terms of hours of work needed to afford everything from a refrigerator to a new car, goods are becoming more affordable and higher-quality over time, which benefits the poor most of all. This has been happening for decades, and the process is not slowing down. Trade, as Hochberg persuasively argues elsewhere throughout the book, is a major reason why. This doesn’t stop him from trying to appeal to likely voters, though his biggest successes come from reasoning through anecdote, and by omission.

Still, Hochberg gets the big picture right, and he paints it well. The six chapters on the six products he chooses as examples are the strongest part of the book. Trade makes modern life possible, he argues. Whether it’s taco salads, minivans, bananas, smartphones, college degrees (an odd choice, but think of it as a stand-in for human capital), or Game of Thrones, just about everything we enjoy today is a product of international trade. Moreover, this is a good thing. What we have today is far better than what we would have under closed borders. As other thinkers from Hans Rosling to Matt Ridley to Julian Simon have argued for a long time, living standards today are higher, health care is better, ideas are more rigorously tested, and technology improves faster. This is what happens when there is a relatively open global market for both supply and demand.

Narrowing down to policy specifics, Hochberg is strongly anti-tariff. One hopes he would maintain this stance in a cabinet role or in elected office. His long section on why trade deficits don’t matter—in short, because people get something in return for their money—is similarly excellent. It is also inconsistent with his Export-Import Bank tenure. Ex-Im is intended, at least in part, to reduce the U.S. trade deficit by increasing exports. But at least Hochberg knows better now, and is willing to say so publicly now that he is out of office, though he doesn’t mention Ex-Im’s role in the capacity.

His defense of some other policies is weak, such as his case for defending trade adjustment assistance. He does not favor similar measures for workers displaced due to non-trade factors, such as technology or changing fashions. His way of resolving this inconsistent stance is unconvincing. Essentially, he argues that trade-related job displacements are due to government policy, while other job displacements are not. Therefore, the government owes them something to soften the blow of trade-related job displacements. But trade decisions are made by private individuals, and the role of policy in those decisions is indeterminate; how does one calculate how many job losses, or which ones, is policy-related? In jobs that are cut for more than one reason, which is most cases, what proportion is policy-related?

Moreover, many non-trade government policies cost jobs. These range from barriers to entry to environmental requirements to minimum wages to cumulative paperwork burdens. By Hochberg’s criteria, these displaced workers deserve compensation, yet he doesn’t favor it. I would argue that rather that treating symptoms with compensation, it would be better to treat the root problem by getting rid of the bad policies in the first place. But that’s for another time.

Taken as a whole, Hochberg is neither a brave nor an adventurous thinker, but he gets the big picture. As a bonus, Hochberg’s prose style is informal and easy to read, though the Game of Thrones references get to be a little much at times. Trade has costs and benefits. Add them up on a ledger, and the benefits are greater, by far. However, Hochberg’s interventionist streak is almost reflexive and seemingly unthinking. Markets fail all the time, including in international trade. That does not mean policymakers can improve matters. Given knowledge and incentive problems, this is rarely the case. The view that market failures can be fixed by an idealized government is known as the Nirvana fallacy, and Hochberg would do well to take it into account.

Just as a fish doesn’t think of the water it swims through, so do Washington types rarely think about the complicated web of policy they make others swim through. It’s just there, and always has been. It’s nothing to question or give careful thought to in a big-picture sense. Trade Is Not a Four-Letter Word definitely has that Washington vibe to it. But if Hochberg moves more Washington types to favor freer trade at the margin, his book will have done more good than he has, or will, in office.

In the News: China Trade

I can’t read the article due to a paywall, but I am quoted in the Las Vegas Review-Journal about the just-signed Phase One of a trade agreement with China.

Senate Passes USMCA, Sets Bad Precedent for Future Agreements with China, UK, EU

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement passed the Senate today, 89-10. As with the Phase One agreement with China that was also signed this week, USMCA is valuable damage control. Three years of unpredictable tariff increases, threats of increases, and diplomatic tensions will hopefully have more stability going forward. Unfortunately, while NAFTA needs some updates, few of them are contained in USMCA’s more than 2,000 pages.

As far as short-term policies, USMCA is not very different from NAFTA. USMCA’s real cost is long-term, which is why Iain Murray and I came out against USMCA last month. Its bad precedents will likely inform upcoming agreements with China, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. Unlike USMCA, these upcoming agreements are potentially transformative. It is important to get them right.

Trade agreements should stick to trade issues. That is the real lesson of the USMCA battle. USMCA is filled with trade-unrelated provisions covering labor, regulatory, environmental, and other policies. It contains naked giveaways to business, labor, and environmental interests. To the extent these provisions touch trade at all, they make it more cumbersome—opposite USMCA’s purpose. These same special interests will almost certainly ask for more, and receive, larger handouts in future agreements.

China is struggling to choose between freedom and continued despotism. The United Kingdom is leaving the European Union. And the EU itself is undergoing changes both internally and on its place on the world stage. The U.S. must engage each of them in ways that ensure mutual peace and prosperity. Part of that larger agenda is free trade. Our upcoming trade agreements with them must be open, transparent, and contain as few trade-unrelated complications and special interest giveaways as possible. These side agreements risk scuttling needed reforms and inflaming diplomatic tensions, while increasing corruption.

USMCA sets a bad precedent for these more important upcoming agreements. Its ratification makes it much harder to overcome political inertia and move global trade policy in a simpler, more open direction. USMCA may be a fait accompli, but it is not too late to learn from it and do future agreements the right way. This means sticking to trade and, to the extent possible, leaving politics out.

Minimum Wages Rise Across the Country

Twenty four states rang in 2020 with minimum wage increases. Most of the increases are modest, so the tradeoffs will be, too. But there was curiously little discussion of those tradeoffs. This is a common tendency among both the media and the general public. They often prefer to either deny that tradeoffs exist, or else play them down. This is unfair to affected workers.

The New York Times editorial board, for example, in a recent editorial titled “Double the Federal Minimum Wage,” opens:

Opponents of minimum-wage laws have long argued that companies have only so much money and, if required to pay higher wages, they will employ fewer workers.

Now there is evidence that such concerns, never entirely sincere, are greatly overstated.

Not only does this piece downplay unemployment tradeoffs, it is one of only two types of tradeoffs it mentions. The editorial also calls for increasing tipped workers’ wages, but those workers mostly disagree, preferring sometimes-informal tipped income over a higher formally reported wage.

Regarding unemployment, the Times piece cites the famous 1993 Card and Krueger study that found no unemployment increases in the aftermath of a New Jersey minimum wage increase. That study relied on survey data, in which business owners sometimes give less-than-honest answers, so as not to appear stingy or heartless. Card and Krueger also did not control for outside economic factors, or what statisticians call “the dreaded third thing.” These relevant third things include macro-level financial, economic, and monetary policy conditions, and local government policy changes other than minimum wage increases. By focusing on only one industry, fast food, Card and Krueger also did not see how other sectors responded to the same increase and possibly affected each other’s behavior.

Job cuts are one of the rarest tradeoffs to minimum wages. It is a drastic measure employers will take only if they have to. Instead, employers typically make much subtler, but more widespread cuts in other areas so they can avoid firing people. This is why, while most studies do find job losses from minimum wage increase, they are typically modest. This is not a victory for minimum wage increase advocates. It means they are not looking very hard for tradeoffs.

My recent paper focuses on those many tradeoffs. When wage pay goes up, non-wage pay goes down to roughly cancel it out. That means cuts to vacation time and perks like free food or parking, less generous insurance, less workplace flexibility, less attention paid to working conditions, and on and on. The mix of tradeoffs is different at every company, and for every affected worker inside a given company, but their rough effect is to roughly cancel out the benefits of the increase. Moreover, larger companies take advantage of minimum wage laws to artificially hobble smaller competitors by raising their labor costs. That is where the debate should be. Jobs are a small part of a much larger picture.

While the House passed a $15 federal minimum wage bill last year, the Senate is not likely to take it up. The more than 50 increases that have just taken effect are all at the state and local level, but minimum wages will almost certainly be a significant campaign issue in 2020. Regardless of November’s election results, next year’s incoming Congress will likely attempt another increase next year, just as most Congresses have over the last 80 years or so.

For more on minimum wages, see my paper “Minimum Wages Have Tradeoffs.”

This Week in Ridiculous Regulations

The new year started off with a literal bang, though as of this writing the worst Iran scenario seems to have been avoided. The Senate is poised to move on its two biggest items, impeachment and the USMCA trade agreement, though the timelines for both are uncertain. On the regulatory front, the 2020 Federal Register took just five working days to exceed 1,000 pages. New final regulations for the week range from air compressors to beef promotion.

On to the data:

  • Last week, 62 new final regulations were published in the Federal Register, after 48 the previous week.
  • That’s the equivalent of a new regulation every two hours and 20 minutes.
  • Federal agencies have issued 83 final regulations in 2020. At that pace, there will be 2,965 new final regulations. Last year’s total was 2,964 regulations.
  • There were also 28 proposed regulations in the Federal Register last week, for a total of 41 on the year. At that pace, there will be 1,465 new proposed regulations in 2020. Last year’s total was 2,106 proposed regulations.
  • Last week, agencies published 281 notices, for a total of 412 in 2020. At that pace, there will be 14,715 new notices this year. Last year’s total was 21,804.
  • Last week, 1,308 new pages were added to the Federal Register, after 1,194 pages the previous week.
  • The 2020 Federal Register totals 1,730 pages. It is on pace for 61,786 pages. The 2019 total was 72,561 pages. The all-time record adjusted page count (which subtracts skips, jumps, and blank pages) is 96,994, set in 2016.
  • Rules are called “economically significant” if they have costs of $100 million or more in a given year. One such rule has been published this year. Four such rules were published in 2019.
  • The running cost tally for 2020’s economically significant regulations is currently zero. 2019’s total ranges from net savings of $350 million to $650 million, mostly from estimated savings on federal spending. The exact number depends on discount rates and other assumptions.
  • Agencies have published three final rules meeting the broader definition of “significant” so far this year. 2019’s total was 66 significant final rules.
  • So far in 2020, 12 new rules affect small businesses; one of them is classified as significant. 2019’s totals were 501 rules affecting small businesses, with 22 of them significant.

Highlights from last week’s new final regulations:

For more data, see Ten Thousand Commandments and follow @10KC and @RegoftheDay on Twitter.