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John McWhorter – Words on the Move: Why English Won’t – and Can’t – Sit Still (Like, Literally)

John McWhorter – Words on the Move: Why English Won’t – and Can’t – Sit Still (Like, Literally)

I listened to the audio version, which McWhorter narrated himself. It is at once casual, funny, factual, and led me to a number of useful and fun intellectual tangents. We all know language changes over time. To people my age (born early 1980s), it sounds odd when older people pronounce “diabetes” as “diabeetus” or “horrible” as “hahr-ibble.” At the same time, many younger people pronounce words like “bit” and “bet” and “dawn” and “Don” in rhyme. Even well-defined regional accents change over time—the classic, often-mocked Brooklyn accent of pronouncing “work” as “woik” is mostly gone now.

Text messages and Twitter are part of a whole other linguistic evolution. McWhorter argues that their innovations have a common purpose of conveying ease and informality. To describe it more fully, he uses the acronym FACE for Factuality, Acknowledgment, Counterexpectation, and Easing. Language doesn’t just communicate information, it communicates social dynamics. All the “LOLs” and emojis in text messages closely imitate in-person spoken language—listen to the cadence, not the words, of any normal spoken conversation and the amount of laughter you will hear is absurd. This is important for texting—you can’t see or hear your correspondent, so verbalizing nonverbal language with LOLs and emojis is a way of compensating for it.

McWhorter doesn’t make this connection, but the overall trend of this evolution ties into Steven Pinker’s point in Better Angels of Our Nature about decreasing violence over time. A reason people today are less formal and more at ease with each other than previous generations is because the threat of violence is low; unlike in, say, medieval times or even the mid-20th century, a social gaffe or lack of proper deference is unlikely to result in bodily harm. People today are more relaxed in dress, speech, and culture because they an be.

Finally, today’s use of “like” as a near-constant verbal tic and “literally” to mean “figuratively” can be annoying, but they also have precedents going back a long way. Teddy Roosevelt’s use of the word “bully,” for example, was that era’s equivalent of having a president who says “dude” a lot. Language changes over time. It happens, and it cannot be stopped.

Linguistic change is also an example of spontaneous order in action—a Hayekian angle that also ties into Adam Smith’s famous essay on the origins of language, which could have been another useful avenue for McWhorter to stroll down.

One can infer from the length of this ewview that McWhorter provides a lot of fodder for thought beyond language, ranging from culture to evolution to psychology. I also recommend the audio version over the print edition.

Sharon Bertsch McGrayne – The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy

Sharon Bertsch McGrayne – The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy

Really good. Bayesian reasoning isn’t as complicated as it sounds—it’s an approach, not a standardized equation. It is a way of calculating the odds of something happening when you don’t know much about it, and learning as you go.

Bayes himself, part of the 18th century Scottish Enlightenment, used the example of dropping a ball on a random spot on a flat table, and finding out blind where it is. Have a friend drop other balls at random and report whether they are to the left or right of the original ball. With each drop, you learn more and can use that to better suss out where the original ball is. For example, if every dropped ball is to the original’s left, then you know it is somewhere on the far right of the table.

This way of thinking turns out to have many applications, from population censuses to deciphering codes to finding lost airplanes and submarines, to making more accurate cancer diagnoses, to the autocorrect in your smartphone, to Google’s language translators and targeted advertisements.

It also has enormous implications for certainty in quantitative reasoning—it is often more useful to have an approximate answer to the right question than a precise answer to the wrong question. But this lack of pure certainty has led many quantitative analysts to reject Bayesian reasoning, to the point where his name has until recently been almost unmentionable in polite circles. This mindset is similar to the Nirvana Fallacy in economics.

Besides putting this old boys’ club mentality its proper place, McGrayne tells the stories of Bayes and Simon LaPlace, the French Enlightenment mathematician who independently discovered Bayesian reasoning and probably deserves most of the credit.

She also introduces and humanizes many of the other major and minor personalities involved in Bayesian reasoning’s long and treacherous history, from Alan Turing, who cracked the Enigma code during World War II, to some of the more tradition-minded scientists who preferred precision at accuracy’s expense.

But she keeps in mind that Bayesianism is one useful tool among many in the scientist’s toolkit. Bayesianism is not gospel, and there is a need for human judgment too, a point Stephen Ziliak and Deirdre McCloskey make in their book The Cult of Statistical Significance.

State of the Union and Trade

Kenneth Rapoza, in a Forbes column, quotes Iain Murray and me on trade:

“Over the past two years, President Trump doubled tariffs in the United States, allies and adversaries have reciprocated, and the economic effects are already visible,” Competitive Enterprise Institute fellows Ryan Young and Iain Murray wrote in an op-ed published on the Fox Business Network website on February 3 [correction: January 3]. “The president may not reverse course on trade, but Congress should take action,” they wrote, telling the new Democratic House of Representatives to “repeal all of the new tariffs” and prevent the president from unilaterally enacting new ones.

Read the whole piece here.

William Manchester – A World Lit Only by Fire: The Medieval Mind and the Renaissance: Portrait of an Age

William Manchester – A World Lit Only by Fire: The Medieval Mind and the Renaissance: Portrait of an Age

The best way to appreciate modern life is to study the past. Not to put too fine a point on it, but for most of human history, everything sucked. Most historians have traditionally focused on kings, battles, and the nobility, because they left behind the most sources. Manchester instead focuses on social history, or what daily life was like for the vast majority of people.

It was cold, hard, violent, dark, lonely, poor, and short. If you lived past 40, you were probably cragged, stooped and treated as an elder. The first thing a modern person would notice about Europe’s greatest cities back then would not be the architecture or the lack of cars and trains. It would be the smell.

The life of the mind was dark and narrow as those unlit city streets. Few people could read, and even fewer wrote. Cultural, religious, and political diversity were quite literally beaten out of people, sometimes to the death. Social order was similarly enforced; everyone in their place.

Life today has its problems, but we have much to be thankful for. This book shows why in great detail.

This Week in Ridiculous Regulations

The Midwest froze, but the Federal Register began to heat up. As I predicted earlier, the first three post-shutdown editions were slow. Then Thursday’s edition alone had 220 agencies notices and 447 pages, both well above normal levels. Thursday also saw the year’s first economically significant regulation, a 70-pager for H-1B visa applicants. On February 1, the Federal Register cracked 1,000 pages, which might be the latest date that has happened since 1959. See the historical table on p. 74 the current edition of Ten Thousand Commandments for more. Other new rules from the week range from Navy signals to external power supplies.

On to the data:

  • Last week, 34 new final regulations were published in the Federal Register, after 4 the previous week.
  • That’s the equivalent of a new regulation every 4 hours and 57 minutes.
  • Federal agencies have issued 50 final regulations in 2019. At that pace, there will be 569 new final regulations. Last year’s total was 3,367 regulations.
  • Last week, agencies published 334 notices, for a total of 603 in 2019. At that pace, there will be 6,853 new notices this year. Last year’s total was 22,205.
  • Last week, 934 new pages were added to the Federal Register, after 211 pages the previous week.
  • The 2019 Federal Register totals 1,341 pages. It is on pace for 15,239 pages. The 2018 total was 68,082 pages. The all-time record adjusted page count (which subtracts skips, jumps, and blank pages) is 96,994, set in 2016.
  • Rules are called “economically significant” if they have costs of $100 million or more in a given year. One such rule have been published this year. Six such rules were published in 2018.
  • The running compliance cost tally for 2019’s economically significant regulations currently ranges from $139.1 million to $175.8 million. The 2018 total ranges from $220.1 million to $2.54 billion, depending on discount rates and other assumptions.
  • Agencies have published one final rule meeting the broader definition of “significant” so far this year. 2018’s total was 108 significant final rules.
  • So far in 2019, 5 new rules affect small businesses; one of them is classified as significant. 2018’s totals were 660 rules affecting small businesses, with 29 of them significant.

All of last week’s new final regulations:

For more data, see Ten Thousand Commandments and follow @10KC and @RegoftheDay on Twitter.

Mark Levinson – The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger, 2nd ed.

Mark Levinson – The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger, 2nd ed.

A history of container shipping. Far more interesting than it sounds; these types of books often are. Something as simple as a standardized shipping container size revolutionized the global trading system, caused the rise and fall of cities and entire industries, caused bitter labor disputes and roiled unions, changed national economic development patterns, and even had foreign policy implications. All this happened over only about three decades.

This story also has the added benefit of a compelling and eccentric personality, Malcom McLean, playing a large role, which makes for even more interesting reading.

Pierre Lemieux – What’s Wrong with Protectionism: Answering Common Objections to Free Trade

Pierre Lemieux – What’s Wrong with Protectionism: Answering Common Objections to Free Trade

A “principles of” primer that starts strong and stays that way. Highly recommended, especially for people new to trade policy. The opening chapter on comparative advantage is probably the clearest explanation I’ve seen—countries with an absolute advantage in many industries, such as the U.S., should specialize in what they’re “more better” at, such as capital-intensive technology, aircraft, and services.

Countries with an absolute disadvantage in productivity, such as China or Bangladesh, should specialize in what they’re “less worse” at—mostly labor-intensive assembly and low-skilled manufacturing. This kind of specialization reduces opportunity costs.

If the U.S. had a billion-dollar garment industry, for example, it would have to sacrifice more than a billion dollars of value it could have created elsewhere. This is a recipe for poverty, not prosperity or national strength. It can create more value by specializing in those highest-value-added sectors, and leaving the rest to others, even if they’re less productive in absolute terms.

The rest of the book is just as good, especially the chapters on manufacturing and the trade deficit.

Peter Leeson – WTF?!: An Economic Tour of the Weird

Peter Leeson – WTF?!: An Economic Tour of the Weird

Leeson, a former professor of mine at GMU, excels at applying the economic way of thinking in unexpected ways (see also his book about the economics of pirates, The Invisible Hook). Here, we tour the economics of gypsy social norms, medieval punishments, and more. Think of it as a more rigorous Freakonomics that is just as accessible to the layman.

Tomas Larsson – The Race to the Top: The Real Story of Globalization

Tomas Larsson – The Race to the Top: The Real Story of Globalization

Larsson is a Swedish-born journalist who lived in Thailand for ten years and studied in the U.S. In this quick-reading book, he shares real-world stories of people who globalization has enabled to become entrepreneurs, to move from bicycles to cars, from outdoor farms to air-conditioning, from word-of-mouth to the Internet, and more.

Since the book’s 2001 publication, many of the statistics he shares are now dated—they have almost all moved in a positive direction, which only makes his pro-trade and pro-openness arguments stronger.

The Bicameral Congressional Trade Authority Act

This week Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) introduced the Bicameral Congressional Trade Authority Act, which would reduce the president’s authority to unilaterally enact new tariffs by citing national security concerns. The Senate sponsors are Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) and Pat Toomey (R-PA). The Democratic co-sponsor in the House is Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI).

Their bill contrasts with Rep. Sean Duffy’s (R-WI) bill to increase President Trump’s tariff authority, which I have written about before.

For reasons politically expedient at the time, Congress delegated some of its taxing power away under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. In light of current abuses of this authority, it is time to restore taxing authority to Congress, where it belongs under Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution.

The Congressional Trade Authority Act would implement one of the planks of CEI’s new agenda for Congress, and has attracted a large, bipartisan group of co-sponsors. It has also garnered significant outside support. The National Taxpayers Union, along with more than three dozen other groups, including the Competitive Enterprise Institute, have sent a coalition letter to members of Congress urging them to rein in Section 232 abuses.

As recent tariff hikes begin to hurt the economy and obstruct the U.S. government’s foreign policy objectives, many politicians are realizing that trade is one area where sound policy is also sound politics. For a more thorough case on why tariffs are economically harmful, see Iain Murray’s and my paper “Traders of the Lost Ark.”