Category Archives: Political Animals

Ted Kennedy, 1932-2009

Posted on August 26, 2009 | Comments Off on Ted Kennedy, 1932-2009

Sen. Ted Kennedy has died. As the Kennedy family deals with the loss of its patriarch, it is worth taking a look at how he is being remembered. Conservatives tend to see only his personal flaws, and his unrepentant big-government liberalism. And these are not to be ignored. They are part of who he was, after all.

But all that many left-liberals see is a hero. His imperfections, merely evidence that this god-like figure was human. Kennedy was not so simple.

From a classical liberal perspective, Sen. Kennedy’s government-first philosophy was deeply troubling. But he also made positive contributions in opening up America’s restrictive immigration system. From the 1920s until 1965, our immigration system actually had race-based quotas. Not only did Sen. Kennedy end the quotas, he changed his party’s thinking on the issue.

Back then, the Democratic party was the one that tended to be more opposed to immigration. Sen. Kennedy’s influence is one reason why today’s partisan Democrats typically have more in common with libertarians on immigration than partisan Republicans.

Classical liberals also had a friend in Sen. Kennedy on issues such as gay rights, free speech (but not campaign finance reform), and in opposing the Iraq war.

This is not to minimize the shallow partisanship and reflexive big-government beliefs that guided his professional life, or his often less-than-admirable personal life. He was not the anointed saint that this morning’s New York Times hagiography paints him to be. Nor the demonic hell-spawn that many conservative outlets are painting him as.

As with any human being, his portrait is more complicated than that. He should be remembered as such. Condolences to Sen. Kennedy’s family and friends in their time of loss.

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Posted in Political Animals

Why I Want a Public Option in the Health Care Bill

Posted on August 21, 2009 | Comments Off on Why I Want a Public Option in the Health Care Bill

Rep. Steny Hoyer is now backing away from the public option, according to Politico. While surprising at first glance, this is a very shrewd political move.

A bill with a public option will probably not pass. Too much opposition. But one without it probably will. Conceding on the public option allows people who support more government involvement in health care to still get much of what they want.

They can always try for a public option later. People will always be dissatisfied with their health care. There will always be calls for reform. Politicians can always win votes by being seen doing something about it.

The main reason the public option has become such a lightning rod probably isn’t ideological. It’s just too big of a change for people to be comfortable with it. Institutions are sticky. Dislodging them with sudden, major changes always creates backlash. Inertia always wins.

But slow, persistent nudges can get the job done without backlash. That’s why even people who want nationalized health care are not calling for it in 2009. They thought the public option would be a small enough step in that direction for the change to stick.

They guessed wrong. That’s why smart tacticians like Rep. Hoyer are backing off. But they’re still going to offer a bill to increase the public sector’s health care presence, if by not as much as originally hoped. Baby steps. Give the electorate a little time to digest the change. Then take the next step.

That’s why I would like Rep. Hoyer and the rest of the leadership team to keep the public option. It very likely dooms their bill to failure. Government is far too involved in health care as it is.

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Posted in Economics, Health Care, Political Animals

The Long Odds of Voting

Posted on August 17, 2009 | Comments Off on The Long Odds of Voting

A new NBER working paper by Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver, and Aaron Edlin finds that “On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the [2008] presidential election.”

Live in a swing state like Virginia? 1 in 10 million.

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Posted in Elections, Political Animals

All Community Organizing Is Astroturfing – And That’s Fine!

Posted on August 10, 2009 | Comments Off on All Community Organizing Is Astroturfing – And That’s Fine!

Democratic members of Congress have held numerous town hall meetings recently to promote the president’s health care plan. They have faced unbridled hostility, to the surprise of many.

The response: attack the people making the hostile arguments, not the arguments themselves.

True, the whole phenomenon does seem vaguely dodgy. Who goes to town hall meetings for fun? Of course the people crashing the events have an agenda. That’s the point!

The weird part is that people use different words to describe the same political tactic, depending on which team’s partisans are behind the disruptions. If one team does it, it’s called “community organizing.” If the other team does it, it’s called “astroturfing.”

Again, it matters less which side is doing what, than whether the arguments they’re making are right or wrong. That is what’s important. The government is currently in charge of a bit more than half of all health care spending. Astroturfers say this is too much; community organizers say this is too little. The debate should hinge on which of the two has the better arguments.

The fact that members of Congress extolling the president’s plan are attacking astroturfers while leaving their arguments alone seems to say that the Congressmen believe their own arguments to be weak. Why else the need to go personal?

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Posted in Political Animals, The Partisan Mind

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Out Come the Crazies

Posted on August 9, 2009 | Comments Off on Out Come the Crazies

“When I see those who espouse my cause, I begin to wonder about the validity of my position.”

-Joseph Schumpeter, in Thomas K. McCraw, Prophet of Innovation: Joseph schumpeter and Creative Destruction, p. 221.

Funny, but true. I feel much the same way every time I attend an event with a high “wacko” factor. I have to remind myself that every political movement, not just mine,  contains some people who do nothing but make it look bad.

One’s opinions are best based on data and logic, and not on who else shares that opinion.

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Posted in Great Thinkers, Pith, Political Animals

The World’s Greatest Deliberative Body

Posted on July 16, 2009 | Comments Off on The World’s Greatest Deliberative Body

For fun, try reading this out loud as fast as you can. From p. 26 of the March 1995 issue of Ultralight Flying Magazine (article not online, unfortunately; hat tip to Wayne Crews):

[I]n 1975, U.S. Senators fought aggressively with obfuscation as they voted on the following resolution: “A motion to table a motion to reconsider a vote to table an appeal of a ruling that a point of order was not in order against a motion to table another point of order against a motion to bring to a vote the motion to call up the resolution that would institute a rules change.”

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Posted in General Foolishness, Political Animals

Franken Declared Winner in MN

Posted on June 30, 2009 | Comments Off on Franken Declared Winner in MN

Interesting timing. One wonders if the Minnesota Supreme Court was waiting to see if Waxman-Markey would pass the House. Franken, remember, represents the crucial 60th Senate vote.

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Posted in Elections, Political Animals

Regulation of the Day 10: Cap and Trade

Posted on June 30, 2009 | Comments Off on Regulation of the Day 10: Cap and Trade

The tenth in an occasional series that shines a bit of light on the regulatory state.

Today’s Regulation of the Day comes to us from the U.S. House of Representatives (435 employees, $4 trillion budget).

The Waxman-Markey cap and trade bill that passed the House last week contains 397 new regulations, according to CEI Energy Policy Analyst William Yeatman and former CEI Warren Brookes Fellow Jeremy Lott. The legislation now heads off to the Senate.

It is worth noting that just minutes after the final vote came in, Washington was hit by a fierce hail storm; not that Congress’ doings have any cause-and-effect relationship with the weather (ahem).

You can read the bill — Congress didn’t — by clicking here.

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Posted in Political Animals, Regulation of the Day, The New Religion

Waxman-Markey Passes House 219-212

Posted on June 26, 2009 | Comments Off on Waxman-Markey Passes House 219-212

I am an economist, not a political analyst. I am not a political partisan, but I do oppose cap-and-trade. Now that my biases — and limitations — are out in the open, here is my take on the down-and-dirty politics of the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade House vote.

It was close. That usually bodes poorly for Senate passage. But something in my gut tells me it will make it through. A filibuster is possible since there are still only 59 Democrats.

But filibusters are used sparingly. That probably means this bill will not face one.

Here’s why. There will be a trillion-dollar health care bill this summer. And the vote on Sonia Sotomayor. Republicans will probably only want to use one filibuster.

Sotomayor would not shift the ideological balance of the court, which means Republicans will probably be fine with letting her through. They will put up enough of a fight to appease their base voters. But I don’t see a filibuster.

That leaves either cap-and-trade or health care. With the economy in trouble, environmental issues have taken a back seat in the public mind. Pocketbook issues always trump “luxury issues” like global warming in times like these.

Republicans therefore have more to gain from filibustering health care than Waxman-Markey. I personally think cap-and-trade will do more to hurt the economy than the forthcoming health care bill. But the median voter doesn’t.

And politicians make their calculations on their electoral prospects, not on economic growth. They will cater to the median voter.

That means the GOP will save its filibuster for health care. Waxman-Markey will pass the Senate unless there are significant Democratic defections, or something sinks the health care bill before Waxman-Markey hits the Senate.

That’s my prediction. Now let’s see what happens. Happy to hear what you think.

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Posted in Political Animals, Predicting the Future, The New Religion

Congress to Tackle College Football

Posted on May 1, 2009 | Comments Off on Congress to Tackle College Football

Having solved all of America’s other problems, Congress is turning its attention to how college football’s national championship is decided.

In a bit of unintentional comedy, Rep. Joe Barton literally compared the current system to communism.

I love it. Yes, Congress has no business here. But any time wasted on issues like this is time that Congress can’t spend further ruining the economy.

There are worse trade-offs than that.

(Cross-posted at Open Market.)

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Posted in Political Animals, regulation