Category Archives: Elections

The Permanent Campaign

Good people generally do not become president. Good people don’t even want to be president.

Why? Power is one reason. There is nothing dignified or noble about seeking power over other human beings.

Morality in politics is that of Thrasymachus in Plato’s Republic: might makes right. No parent would teach that to their child. It is wrong.

The brutal campaigns are the other reason good people shy away from political careers. A successful campaign for even minor office requires months of the candidate prostrating himself before people he’s never met.

He has to tailor his opinions to match the median voter’s. He dares not follow his own heart or mind; he’d lose for sure.

Good people carry themselves with pride and dignity. The man or woman who voluntarily endures the modern campaign has neither.

Pundits started talking years ago about the notion of the “permanent campaign.” It used to be a cynical joke at the expense of a politician whose powerlust was a little too obvious; proper decorum demanded such impulses to be kept below the surface.

Decorum has declined. People who play for the Red Team are already jockeying to position themselves as their team’s nominee. More than three years from now.

The Blue Team already knows who their nominee will be. And he’s already begun campaigning for a second term. His first has not yet even begun.

The Politico‘s Ben Smith reports that President Obama has even named his permanent campaign: Organizing for America. This is unprecedented.

Smith describes it as a “potentially hugely, uniquely powerful tool, enhancing the muscle of the official who is already the most powerful man in America.”

Power. Always power. Politicians are terrible little creatures. May our children aspire to better things.

Democracy in Action

The still-undecided Minnesota senate race has already gone through several recounts. This seems to happen every time the race is closer than the margin of litigation.

First, Al Franken insisted on a recount because he didn’t win. He still wasn’t ahead after that, so he pushed for another, and another. Now he is ahead by 46 votes or so.

Now his opponent, Norm Coleman, wants more recounting because he isn’t winning.

Note the “because he isn’t winning.” That’s the important part. If Franken had initially won, he would not have asked for a recount. Coleman never favored a recount while he was ahead.

To the partisan mind, it doesn’t matter if every vote is counted, or even if the election is honest. Nor does it matter that both sides are being hypocritical. What matters is that your team wins.

If at first your team loses, then change the rules of the game so that you do win. This is one thing if you’re playing a game against a small child. It is another when the game involves grown men and control over trillions of dollars of government spending.

Politicians — and their supporters — are strange, fascinating creatures.

Changes in Congress – Very Small Changes

“Throw the bums out” is a popular political sentiment. But how often does it actually happen? To find out, I crunched some numbers from Roll Call‘s post-election casualty list.

The results were not encouraging.

There will be 64 new members of Congress next year, along with 12 new Senators. That’s a total turnover rate of 14.7% in the House and 12% in the Senate.

That means average tenure is a hair under 14 years (7 terms) in the House, and about 16.67 years (2.78 terms) in the Senate.

But that’s total turnover. Some members left to run for other offices, like Biden and Obama. More than half of all turnover was caused by either retirement (31) or death (8).

A bum can only be thrown out if he actively seeks re-election. That happened 20 times in the House — thrice in primaries and 17 times in general elections. Three Senators were defeated this year. Removing open seats from the equation, which have no incumbent running, we see that the bums hardly ever get thrown out.

In short: if you’re an incumbent Congressman running for re-election, your chance of success is 94.9% (370 out of 390). If you’re in the Senate, your chance of winning another term is 90.0% (27/30).

Talk about job security. Heck, Sen. Ted Stevens was convicted on 7 felony counts and still won (UPDATE: He lost after a recount. Well done, Alaska!). Rep. William Jefferson just won his second election after being caught storing $90,000 of bribe money in his freezer.

People do seem to want change. But for some reason, they rarely vote that way.

America to Lurch Left?

The Weekly Standard‘s Fred Barnes has a scare story in today’s Wall Street Journal. He warns of a lurch to the left if Barack Obama wins today’s election. Barnes, a partisan Republican, wrote a book about President Bush in 2006 titled Rebel-in-Chief. He is also a McCain supporter.

Suppose Obama wins, and this lurch to the left happens. Why is Barnes opposed to it? A leftward turn would simply be a continuation of large swaths of Bush administration policy — which Barnes endorses.

True, most people think of President Bush as a conservative, not a liberal. And yes, President Bush is socially conservative and hawkish on foreign policy.

His liberal credentials are still impressive.

For example: President Bush has enacted the largest new entitlement program in forty years; made the tax code more progressive; skyrocketed federal spending on education; overseen 51,000 new regulations to rein in unfettered free markets; transferred billions of dollars from taxpayers to alternative energy researchers; the list goes on.

In short, the federal government, both in spending and in doing, has grown faster under Bush than even Lyndon Johnson could muster. McCain’s limited government credentials are on roughly equal footing.

Barnes and Obama do see things differently on foreign policy and on some social issues. But when it comes to core principles, there is little difference. Barnes, Bush, McCain, and Obama all favor a large, active federal government. Barnes’ distaste for Obama — and support for McCain — is more likely motivated by partisanship than actual philosophical disagreement.

The truth is, no matter who wins, people who favor limited government will probably lose.

U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement Stirs in Its Sleep

The stalled U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement has become a campaign issue in Florida’s 25th District, which is home to a substantial Colombian-American population. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart is using his support of the agreement as a club with which to beat his challenger.

That challenger, Joe Garcia, doth protest. He says he is “for fair trade and getting it done in a way that protects American jobs and American commerce.” That’s another way of saying that he thinks consumers are paying too little for goods and services.

Trade cannot be fair unless it is free. For more on how the U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement promotes both fairness and freedom, see this study that Fran Smith and I co-authored in July.

Why I’m Not Voting This Year

I used to vote. But I stopped after the 2002 election. I catch a lot of flak for it, too. Friends, family, and co-workers have all taken me to task over the years.

But I have my reasons. Two of them, in fact. The first is simple: I don’t care for either candidate.

The second reason is much more important. Unfortunately, it also rubs a lot of people the wrong way: my vote will not change the outcome of the election. This is true even though I live in a swing state. For all intents and purposes, my vote doesn’t count.

Let’s use Virginia, where I live, as an example. There are currently 5,021,993 registered voters here. Let’s bias the assumptions to make my vote as decisive as possible. Suppose 40% turnout, which is lower than expected. Also suppose that Obama and McCain are polling exactly 50-50 on election day. The election could easily go either way. It’s a coin toss. Would my vote affect the outcome?

There’s a chance it would. And I just calculated it using a formula developed by political scientists Geoffrey Brennan and Loren Lomasky (hat tip to Bryan Caplan‘s Public Finance class). How big is that chance?

(drumroll, please…)

It’s so small, my graphing calculator can’t even display it properly. It gives me a syntax error. That means we’re talking a number smaller than 10 to the -100 power. Basically zero, in other words. Even under the most favorable circumstances.

You can see why I don’t think it matters if I vote.

Unfortunately, more than one person I’ve talked to has assumed that because I don’t vote, then I must think that anyone who does is a fool. That simply isn’t true. A lot of people value participating in democracy highly enough to outweigh the low impact of voting. That is a value judgment, and not to be looked down upon; different people have different values.

All I ask is that you voters out there return the favor and respect the decisions of those of us who don’t vote. We have our reasons, too.

Everglades for VP?

Florida Governor Charlie Crist just announced a $1.7 billion restoration program for the Everglades.

Given the timing, it sure sounds like somebody wants Sen. McCain to give him the VP nod.

Obama Now a NAFTA Supporter

Now that the primaries are over, Sen. Barack Obama has come out in favor of NAFTA. He told Fortune in an interview that “Sometimes during campaigns the rhetoric gets overheated and amplified.”

I’ll say. On the campaign trail he has called NAFTA both “devastating” and “a big mistake.” He also threatened to unilaterally opt out of NAFTA for six months as a prelude to reopening negotiations.

The U.S. economy has added 26 million net jobs since NAFTA took effect in 1994. Inflation-adjusted worker compensation is up 23%.

Obama’s qualified support of free trade is a welcome change. But it makes clear an unfortunate reality. His earlier rhetoric was either misinformed, or intentionally deceitful.

Neither is an appealing characteristic for a potential President.

Let’s Move Election Day

CNN’s Roland Martin thinks that elections should be held on Saturdays, not Tuesdays. He thinks that would increase turnout.

I have a better idea. Move Election Day to Tax Day — April 15. We can decide who gets to spend our money while our tax bills are still fresh in our minds. Politicians would have less incentive to come up with grandiose schemes for spending other peoples’ money.

Besides, I’ve always thought it borderline suspicious that elections are held at the opposite end of the calendar from when we pay our taxes.

Voting vs. Not Voting: The Debate Continues

One of the reasons I don’t vote is because my vote is unlikely to ever change the outcome of an election. Not even if I had lived in Florida in 2000, would my one vote have tipped the scales.

Well, it turns out one-vote elections do actually happen. This week there was one in the county I grew up in, of all places.

After a recount, Jim Kaplan won the Racine County 4th District Supervisor position. By one vote.

He’s also an alderman, and plans to hold both positions going forward. Not sure how I feel about that.

There’s one reason to reconsider my non-voting stance.