Category Archives: Economics

CEI Podcast for January 24, 2013: Gov. McDonnell’s Transportation Plan

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Have a listen here.

Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell recently released a headline-grabbing plan for the state’s transportation funding that would abolish the state’s gasoline tax and raise other taxes to make up the difference. Land-use and Transportation Policy Analyst Marc Scribner is critical of the plan, and prefers policies that fit the user-pays, user-benefits principle.

Great Stagnation?

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After adjusting for inflation, average wages in the U.S. have been stagnant for 50 years. This is a major problem, according to many a campaign stump speech. The solutions, the speech continues, usually involve grand federal plans for everything from education to renewable energy. Vote for me.

In a wonderful piece in today’s Wall Street Journal, Don Boudreaux and Mark Perry beg to differ. They argue that even though real wages haven’t budged, actual living standards have – for the better. They give three reasons.

One is that the Consumer Price Index isn’t a very good measure of inflation. It doesn’t account for technological advances and improving product quality. “Would you prefer 1980 medical care at 1980 prices, or 2013 care at 2013 prices? Most of us wouldn’t hesitate to choose the latter,” they point out. Even if you have the same amount of dollars that you used to, today’s dollars buy better stuff.

The second reason is that while wages stay roughly the same, benefits have gone way up, so average total compensation is higher than it was 30 years ago.

Their third point is more subtle, and also the most important. Thinking only in terms of averages isn’t the right way to judge living standards. I’ll let Boudreaux and Perry explain:

[T]he average hourly wage is held down by the great increase of women and immigrants into the workforce over the past three decades. Precisely because the U.S. economy was flexible and strong, it created millions of jobs for the influx of many often lesser-skilled workers who sought employment during these years.

Since almost all lesser-skilled workers entering the workforce in any given year are paid wages lower than the average, the measured statistic, “average hourly wage,” remained stagnant over the years—even while the real wages of actual flesh-and-blood workers employed in any given year rose over time as they gained more experience and skills.

People tend to better their lot over time. That is just the kind of argument Julian Simon might make, were he around today. His combination of compassion and numeracy, which Boudreaux and Perry share, is entirely too rare. This rarity is reflected in the quality of most political speechifying.

Read the whole thing.

John Locke Anticipates Public Choice

While James Buchanan’s simple insight that politicians are just as self-interested as the rest of us may have shocked the economic discipline, it strikes the rest of humanity as simple common sense. John Locke, writing well before the rise of Samuelson and Nordhaus, shows such common sense towards the beginning of chapter 12 of his Second Treatise:

And because it may be too great a temptation to human frailty, apt to rasp at power, for the same persons, who have the power of making laws, to have also in their hands the power to execute them, whereby they may exempt themselves from obedience to the laws they make, and suit the law, both in its making, and execution, to their own private advantage, and thereby come to have a distinct interest from the rest of community, contrary to the end of society and government: therefore in well-ordered commonwealths, where the good of the whole is so considered, as it ought, the legislative power is put into the hands of divers persons, who duly assembled, have by themselves, or jointly with others, a power to make laws, which when they have done, being separated again, they are themselves sunject to the laws they have made; which is a new and near tie upon them, to take care, that they make them for the public good.

That incredibly long sentence says two things, and both of them are true: legislators act in their own interest, and we should design our political institutions with that in mind to minimize the harm they can do. Buchanan would agree on both fronts.

Locke’s Labor Theory of Value

One of Adam Smith’s few deficiencies as a thinker was that he held a labor theory of value. It was the better part of a century after Smith that Carl Menger and others popularized the subjective theory of value that economists use today. As it turns out, John Locke also held to a labor theory of value.

In his discussion of the origin of property rights in chapter 5 of his Second Treatise, Locke argues that land becomes your property when you labor upon it by tilling the soil or otherwise improving it. But then, in section 40 , he goes one step further:

For it is labour indeed that puts the difference of value on every thing; and let any one consider what the difference is between an acre of land planted with tobacco or sugar, sown with wheat or barley, and an acre of the same land lying in common, without any husbandry up on it, and he will find, that the improvement of labour makes the far greater part of the value.

I disagree. Under the subjective theory of value, the whole reason crop-producing labor creates value isn’t because of the labor. It’s because people value the crops, expressed by their willingness to pay for them. This willingness varies from person to person; that is why value is subjective. There is no objective standard.

Getting Buchanan Wrong

The New York Times obituary for James Buchanan is up. The opening paragraph contains a whopper of an error:

James M. Buchanan, a scholar and author whose analyses of economic and political decision-making won the 1986 Nobel in economic sciences and shaped a generation of conservative thinking about deficits, taxes and the size of government, died on Wednesday in Blacksburg, Va. He was 93.

The author of the piece, Robert McFadden, might be surprised to learn that in 2005 Buchanan wrote a book titled Why I, Too, Am Not a Conservative: The Normative Vision of Classical Liberalism. McFadden also might be surprised to learn that there are more than two political philosophies. Just because someone is not progressive doesn’t mean, therefore, they are conservative. Buchanan self-identified as a classical liberal, which is a philosophy distinct from both progressivism and conservatism, and has roots reaching as far back as ancient Mesopotamia.

The strict binary view of politics held by most journalists might be convenient for creating compelling election campaign stories. But it is sorely incomplete, and does readers no favors as far as imparting any actual understanding of the issues.

James Buchanan, 1919-2013

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Economics has lost one of its greats. James Buchanan has passed away at age 93. Born on a Tennessee farm in 1919, he continued working as a farmhand to put himself through college, milking cows twice a day. From there he went on to a long and varied career, culminating in his being awarded the 1986 economics Nobel.

He won that Nobel for his role in developing public choice theory. After the Prize Committee made its announcement, a flock of economically innocent reporters asked him to explain what the heck that was. They were astonished at his simple answer: it is applying the economic way of thinking to politics. It is treating politicians the same as everyone else – self-interested, responsive to incentives, a bit vain, eager to please and be pleased – flesh and blood human beings, basically. The reporters scoffed; why, that’s nothing more than common sense!

Maybe so, he replied. But most economists don’t actually think that way.

It says a lot about the state of the discipline that Buchanan distinguished himself by simply having common sense. Economics since Paul Samuelson has been plagued by physics envy, and Buchanan stuck out like a sore thumb for being more in the mold of Adam Smith, who was more interested in people than disciplinary prestige. Today’s economists are fixated on being quantitative. They want to be scientists and engineers. Leading journals simply will not publish articles that don’t contain regression analysis or at least some sophisticated mathematics. It’s not scientific otherwise.

Buchanan’s most famous book, The Calculus of Consent, has plenty of equations and geometric analysis; he spoke his discipline’s language. But the book wasn’t about appearing scientific. It was about how people behave in the real world. Buchanan rejected the perfect competition model, which sacrifices a great deal of realism to achieve its mathematical elegance. Instead, Buchanan simply applied the economic way of thinking as consistently as possible.

Buchanan also didn’t want to be a savior of humanity, unlike the Galbraiths and Krugmans of the world. “Economics is the art of putting parameters on our utopias,” he said. He was more humble than that. He wanted to be a student of humanity. And he was a good one.

The whole reason Buchanan was wary of over-mathematicization in economics is that the human condition is messy. The clean, elegant models his colleagues were constructing didn’t much resemble real people. And that is a problem; economics is about people. At its core, it is a social science. It is about how people exchange with each other, and the different ways people find to get along (or not) with each other.

Economics is also a way of thinking. What made Buchanan stick out was his dogged consistency in thinking like an economist. That’s what led him to public choice in the first place. Most economists, seeing a market failure, automatically recommend political solutions. Buchanan, knowing that political institutions are subject to all the same foibles as market institutions, was wary of such easy fixes. Buchanan, with typical pith, argued instead for looking at “politics without romance.” The real world is often too complicated for intellectuals’ grand plans to work.

That remarkable consistency led Buchanan to make a lot of contributions besides public choice. Much of Buchanan’s early work had to do with deficit spending. He was against it, which was as unusual in the 1950s as it is today. Even so, his books Democracy in Deficit [PDF] and Public Principles of Public Debt remain influential in today’s spending debate .

He also changed the shape of the ongoing Pigou-Coase debate by inventing the concept of club goods. A club good lies somewhere between a public good and a private good. An apple is a private good because if you eat it, I can’t. It’s gone. National defense is a public good because it is both non-rival – your enjoyment of it doesn’t diminish mine – and non-excludable. The military defends everyone, not just some.

But that dichotomy leaves out a whole host of goods that have some characteristics of both – cinemas, public pools, and cable television come to mind. If one person is in a pool and another person gets in, there’s still plenty of room for both. Their fun is non-rivalrous. But as more and more people get in, everyone’s fun becomes more and more rivalrous, with diminishing returns. The solution to this problem is to set up a club – charge members a fee to join, and build a fence to exclude non-members. Buchanan’s club goods concept has implications not just for pools and theaters, but for communications networks, utilities, and anything that may be subject to a natural monopoly.

Perhaps my favorite bit of Buchananite wisdom is his dichotomy between pre-constitutional analysis and post-constitutional analysis. People respond to incentives, remember. And the rules of the game are what shape those incentives. If you want different results, often you need different rules. A constitution, at heart, is what sets up those rules. What the different branches of government are, what their powers are, how they are elected or appointed, and so on.

Pre-constitutional analysis looks at these different rules and what incentives they provide. It’s more theoretical. Post-constitutional analysis is more empirical – now that these rules are actually in place, how are people behaving? As someone interested in institution-level reform, this way of thinking is invaluable in my own work.

But enough on his intellectual contributions. James Buchanan was a person, too. I only met Buchanan once, and very briefly at that. But even in that brief interaction his kindly Southern genteel manner that charmed friend and foe alike was apparent. He may have been in his 80s at the time, but his eyes and his mind were still sharp, and he was anything but cranky. He worked into his 90s, and age never dulled him. But time wins all battles, and now one of the world’s purest economists is gone. He will be missed.

“There Are No Externalities, Only Chips.”

Michael Munger’s explanation of externalities and Pigouvian taxes is both hilarious and informative. Click here if the embedded video below doesn’t work.

An Important Distinction

Master of the Senate, the third volume of Robert Caro’s biography of Lyndon Johnson, opens with a lengthy history of the world’s greatest deliberative body from America’s founding up to Johnson’s time. On page 44, describing the end of a lengthy period of Senatorial stagnation in the early 20th century, Caro writes about how leadership deliberated:

The “Senate Four” or the “Big Four,” as they were known, still met in summer at Aldrich’s great castle in Narragansett, near Newport – four aging men in stiff high white collars and dark suits (Aldrich, being at home, might occasionally unbend to wear a blazer) even on the hottest days, sitting on a colonnaded porch in rockers and wicker chairs deciding Republican policy – a policy that was still based on an unshaken belief in laissez-faire and the protective tariff.

Caro is a masterful biographer and a fine writer, but he is sometimes a little confused on economics. Protective tariffs are government interventions in the market, and therefore the precise opposite of laissez-faire. Then, as now, Republican leaders were much more pro-business than pro-market. This is an important distinction to make. Failing to make it can lead to egregious — and avoidable — errors.

There Is Nothing Left to Cut

The State Department has created a time travel-themed video game.

You can play it here.

CEI Podcast for December 12, 2012: Ending the Beer Monopoly

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Have a listen here.

Fellow in Consumer policy Studies Michelle Minton argues that the beer industry in America is essentially a monopoly. In her new paper “Avoid a Monopoly by Setting the Market Free: How the Mandatory Three-Tier Distribution System Inhibits Competition,” she argues that this monopoly is a regulatory creation, and offers ideas for reform.