Category Archives: Economics

CEI Podcast for October 30, 2013: Bringing Transparency to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

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Have a listen here.

George Mason University law professor and Mercatus Center senior scholar Todd Zywicki discusses his paper, “The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau: Savior or Menace?” His thesis is that this “independent agency inside another independent agency, presided over by a single director who is insulated from presidential removal,” which is also immune to Congress’ power of the purse, is a return to a Nixon-era approach to agency structure. He gives several recommendations for improving actual consumer protection.

Questions for Janet Yellen

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The Federal Reserve is arguably the government’s most important agency, even if it is (nominally) independent. It has control over the price system, the most fundamental part of any economy. It also exercises significant power over the banking sector, and in recent years has taken to doing large favors for Wall Street. These are all reasons why Janet Yellen’s nomination for Fed Chair needs to be carefully vetted. To that end, my CEI colleagues John Berlau and Iain Murray and I put together some questions about several facets of the Fed’s mission we would like to Yellen answer, whether during her confirmation hearing or elsewhere. You can read the short WebMemo here. Here is one of our questions about inflation:

Many observers expect you to pursue an inflationary stimulus, and believe this is likely a reason for your nomination. If your actions are already expected, will markets not take these expected price level changes into account in advance? If so, do you believe this would blunt the employment impact of any monetary expansion? Would you respond to these pre-existing expectations with an unexpectedly high inflationary policy?

As John, Iain, and I write, Yellen’s credentials are not in question. But the policies she might pursue as Fed Chair are. Read more here.

The Limits of Human Understanding

The knowledge problem is more than a pet theory among economists. It is a biological fact:

[T]he capacity of any explaining agent must limited to objects with a structure possessing a degree of complexity lower than its own. If this is correct, it means that no explaining agent can ever explain objects of its own kind, or of its own degree of complexity, and, therefore, that the human brain can never fully explain its own operations.

-F.A. Hayek, The Sensory Order, 185.

This implies that the human brain is therefore incapable of fully understanding society, currently comprised of more than 7 billion separate human brains–none of which can fully understand themselves, not to mention their 7 billion colleagues.

The Sensory Order is a work of theoretical psychology. But it has very clear empirical implications for economics, not to mention policymakers and regulators. Think of this limitation as a reason why the law of unintended consequences continues to have so many real-world examples.

Markets in Everything: Rat Tails

During the Korean War, the Chinese government accused the U.S. of engaging in germ warfare–air-dropping canisters filled with germs and bacteria-infused insects and pests not just in Korea, but in China, too. The accusation sounds ridiculous now, but at the time, it sounded somewhat plausible. General MacArthur, after all, openly mused about using nuclear bombs in Korea, and nearby Japan used biological weapons just a few years earlier during World War II.

The propaganda campaign caused a nationwide scare, as well as major cleanup efforts. As historian Frank Dikötter explains on p. 148 of his new book, The Tragedy of Liberation: A History of the Chinese Revolution 1945-1957,
the campaign also caused a most unusual market to form:

From north to south, people were also required to kill the ‘five pests,’ namely flies, mosquitoes, fleas, bedbugs[,] and rats. In Beijing every person had to produce the tail of one rat every week. Those who greatly exceeded the quota were allowed to fly a red flag over the gate of their house, while those who failed had to raise a black flag. An underground market in tails rapidly developed.

Market orders emerge, even during some of history’s darkest hours.

Humility in Economics

Economics used to be a humble profession. It lost that humility around the time the discipline became more quantitative. Armed with computers and econometrics, economists went from students of human behavior to saviors of humanity. The discipline’s prevailing mindset used to be akin to biologists, seeking to understand organic, evolving, and interacting processes. Now the engineer’s mentality is more common: tinkering, fixing, and improving. Instead of understanding a process, now the goal is to bring about specific results.

This is certainly the correct approach to building a bridge or designing a car. But economies, or rather the people who comprise them, don’t respond as predictably as concrete or steel. Economies are organic and complicated. Each aspect is too inter-related with too many other moving parts for top-down plans to work as intended. Unlike chess pieces, human beings will move around the board on their own.

Peter Boettke is the rare economist who remains intellectually humble. And that makes this short interview with him worth watching (click here if the embed doesn’t work).

The Trouble with Federal Grants

Is summed up perfectly by Gordon Tullock:

In passing, I may note an amusing plaque which, at least some years ago, was set in the cement at the entrance to the Toledo, Ohio, airport. This plaque was a letter from President Eisenhower to the City of Toledo in which he congratulated the city on having built their airport entirely on their own without federal funds. He made it clear that he thought this was a highly meritorious, and even noble, act. In order not to raise any misunderstanding in other parts of the country, however, he then went on to say that, of course, those communities which could not provide their own airport must receive federal aid. I take it that the citizens of Toledo never again found it possible to build their own airport.”

-Gordon Tullock, “Competing for Aid,” Virginia Political Economy: Selected Works, Vol. 1, 205-6.

No Such Thing as Perfect Information

gordon tullockGordon Tullock has a reputation for being rather salty at times. But, more often than not, he is right. This quotation captures both qualities:

[N]o teacher with classroom experience can really believe that everyone is perfectly informed.
-Gordon Tullock,  “Rationality and Revolution,” Virginia Political Economy: Selected Works, Vol. 1, 341

CEI Podcast for October 10, 2013: CEI Files FOIA Requests Over Park Closures

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Have a listen here.

During the government shutdown, the National Park Service has barricaded and even closed numerous open-air memorials and parks – including, in some cases, privately owned parks. CEI has filed a series of Freedom of Information Act requests to find out who made the decisions and why. Senior Attorney and Counsel for Special Projects Hans Bader discusses the case.

CEI Podcast for October 3, 2013: The Federal Shutdown

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Have a listen here.

For the 17th time since 1976, the federal government has shut down over a partisan fiscal squabble. Vice President for Strategy Iain Murray gives his thoughts on how it happened, what the consequences will be, and what is at stake.

Spontaneous Order in One Sentence

“The great society indeed became possible by the individual directing his own efforts not towards visible wants but towards what the signals of the market represented as the likely gain of receipts over outlay.”

-F.A. Hayek, “Adam Smith (1723–1790): His Message in Today’s Language”, The Trend of Economic Thinking, 117. (PDF)

That process, writ large, is the single most powerful force in all the social sciences. It has conquered hunger, disease, and poverty wherever it has been allowed to operate with a reasonable degree of freedom.