Category Archives: Economics

David Neumark and William L. Wascher – Minimum Wages

David Neumark and William L. Wascher – Minimum Wages

A comprehensive literature review covering more than 100 studies. Neumark and Wascher also discuss findings in their own work. Overall, they find that minimum wages have small disemployment effects. As a poverty relief measure, they are also not as effective as other measures such as straight cash or the Earned Income Tax Credit. In part this is because minimum wages often miss their intended target; many minimum wage earners are disproportionately young people who still live with their parents in households well above the poverty level. Minimum wages also increase inequality among low earners. People who keep their jobs often get a modest raise. But companies will dump their lowest-skilled workers and take on fewer part-time workers, which includes many women with young children who want to help make ends meet. They find similar effects in reviewing research on other countries including Canada, the UK, Mexico, Brazil, and much of Latin America.

Surprisingly for such a thorough book, Neumark and Wascher leave out a long list of non-wage tradeoffs that come with minimum wages. They address hour cuts, hiring freezes, price increases, lower profits, and unintended income distributions. But they mostly leave out benefit cuts, workplace conditions, stricter break and vacation policies, job perks such as employee discounts, free parking and meals, and other possible tradeoffs. These are difficult to measure with any method besides surveys, which are notoriously unreliable. As a result, there is little to no empirical research on these tradeoffs, even though economists, legislators, and pop culture have acknowledged their existence for decades.

As result, most minimum wage literature focuses on employment, which is easier to measure. It is also the most drastic tradeoff employers can make, which is why they go to great lengths to avoid doing it, preferring other tradeoffs that are unfortunately harder for outside researchers to measure. This “tyranny of metrics” effect has lowered the quality of the minimum wage debate on both sides.

On the Radio: China Tariffs

Earlier today, I appeared on the Alan Nathan Show to talk about tariffs and a possible trade deal with China.

I’m not sure how to access show archives, but if I can find audio I’ll post a link.

Tariffs Are Not Encouraging Chinese Reforms

In a syndicated piece at Inside Sources, Kate Patrick quotes me on President Trump’s China tariffs:

The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI), in response to China’s latest tariff retaliation, criticized the Trump administration for continuing a trade war that has not produced the kind of trade agreement Trump wants, adding that Congress should reclaim its constitutional tariff-making authority to stop the trade war.

“Tariffs have once again failed to get China to make needed reforms, instead of responding to Trump administration tariffs with retaliation,” Senior Fellow Ryan Young said. “The administration should change course and re-engage the World Trade Organization dispute resolution process and rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership. China has already been lowering trade barriers against other countries and could do so with the U.S.”

Read the whole thing here.

On the Radio: Antitrust

On Sunday morning from 8-9 AM PT, I’ll be on the Bob Zadek Show talking antitrust regulation. He has a promo article with a link to listen live here. See also Wayne Crews’ and my antitrust paper.

Antitrust Basics: Think Long Term, Not Just Short Term

This is the seventh entry in the “Antitrust Basics” series. See below for previous posts.

Moore’s Law states that computing power doubles every year and a half or so. An antitrust case against IBM, by contrast, lasted for 13 years, never reached a decision, and was eventually dropped because the original issue had long become obsolete. Markets are ongoing-long-term processes but antitrust cases are often short-term reactions to temporary situations—even if they sometimes last so long as to outlive the problem they seek to address.

Today’s Neo-Brandeisians and right-wing populists calling for an antitrust revival are not the only analysts prone to short-termism. Robert Bork, famous for his antitrust skepticism, writes on p. 311 of his 1978 book “The Antitrust Paradox”:

Antitrust is valuable because in some cases it can achieve results more rapidly than can market forces. We need not suffer losses while waiting for the market to erode cartels and monopolistic mergers.

Bork’s statement focuses on short-term results while ignoring long-term underlying processes, and has several other problems besides. How do regulators and judges know which cases are causing consumer harm and which are not? How do they ensure cases are chosen on the merits and not for politically-motivated reasons?

Cases also often take years to resolve. Assuming regulators do identify a valid case, how would they, and the judges who hear the case, know if market activity could address the problem by the time the case is decided? Do the benefits of regulatory action exceed the court and enforcement costs? Are the affected companies in a position to capture the regulators?

More to the point, does the short-term benefit come at a greater long-term cost? An enforcement action now could have an unforeseen deterrent effect on future mergers, contracts, and innovations, including in unrelated industries. The consumer harm from these could well exceed the short-term benefits of a short-term improvement on market outcomes—assuming that regulators are consistently capable of such a feat.

In the 1969-1982 IBM case, regulators eventually gave up, however belatedly. But this is not guaranteed to happen in every case. And who knows what consumer-benefiting innovations IBM could have developed with the time and resources it ended up devoting to defending itself in this case?

As the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission conduct their investigations into Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Apple, they should keep their limited abilities to answer such questions in mind—as well as their bosses’ short-term focus, which rarely extends beyond the next election cycle.

For more, see Wayne Crews’ and my paper, “The Case against Antitrust Law: Ten Areas Where Antitrust Policy Can Move on from the Smokestack Era.” Further resources are at antitrust.cei.org.

Previous blog posts in the Antitrust Basics series:

U.S.-China Trade War and the 2020 Election

I just saw this now, but I was quoted in an August 13 U.S. News & World Report article on China tariffs:

“The administration has been saying otherwise, but it is good to see that they do not believe their own words,” Ryan Young, a senior fellow at the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, said in a statement Tuesday. “Several rounds of China tariffs have so far failed to encourage the Chinese government to make needed reforms. Beijing has instead consistently retaliated with its own trade barriers, hurting the U.S. economy as well as its own.”

Read the whole thing here.

China Tariff Retaliation Shows Failure of Trump Policy

This is a CEI press release. The original is posted here.

On news that China plans to raise tariffs on Sep. 1 and Dec. 15, respectively, in retaliation for President Trump’s recent increase, Competitive Enterprise Institute senior fellow expert Ryan Young said failure of the tariff policy was predictable.

“Tariffs have once again failed to get China to make needed reforms, instead responding to Trump administration tariffs with retaliation. The administration should change course and re-engage the World Trade Organization dispute resolution process and rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership. China has already been lowering trade barriers against other countries and could do so with the U.S.

“Ultimately, Congress needs to reclaim the tariff-making authority it gave away to the president back in the 1960s and 1970s. In the meantime, economic adviser Peter Navarro should take Brett Favre’s advice to a referee and take two weeks off, then quit.”

Related reports:

Antitrust Basics: Corruption and Rent-Seeking

This is the sixth entry in the “Antitrust Basics” series. See below for previous posts.

Rent-seeking is economics jargon for chasing after unfair special favors from government. Businesses and individuals have a large menu of rent-seeking options to choose from, and antitrust regulations are one of the items. Licensing regulations and other restrictions can make it harder for startups to enter a market, favoring incumbent businesses. Bailouts, such as General Motors and several large financial firms have received in recent years, are another form of rent-seeking. Cash subsidies, such as many green energy producers receive, are rent-seeking examples. Special financing, as through agencies like the Export-Import Bank or the Overseas Private Investment Bank, enable rent-seeking by Boeing and many farm and construction equipment manufacturers such as John Deere and General Electric.

All told, it is a minor miracle that corporate welfare is only about a $100 billion problem. Standard economic theory predicts that it should be much larger. Competitive Enterprise Institute founder Fred Smith and I wrote a paper arguing that virtue is an important limiting factor, though incomplete. Antitrust regulation provides another temptation to seek unfair rents, and would not improve the business world’s moral climate.

Neo-Brandeisians and other progressives rightfully oppose rent-seeking, but err when they propose increased antitrust policies as a solution.Tim Wu, a prominent neo-Brandeisian analyst, correctly points out how numerous companies game government policies to reduce competition, but then goes on to advocate for more government power as the solution. Even now, in a relatively restrained antitrust environment, roughly 95 percent of antitrust lawsuits are brought privately by competitors, not by the Justice Department or Federal Trade Commission. Repealing antitrust regulation would not eliminate rent-seeking—there are many other avenues rent-seekers can take—but it would reduce it.

Neo-Brandeisians advocating antitrust regulation as a way to promote virtue have a common misunderstanding of how governments work in practice. Government employees do not operate with only the public interest in mind. They are human beings, with the same incentives, flaws, and self-interested tendencies as other human beings.

Agency employees want to increase their budgets and power, and often enjoy the publicity that accompanies big cases. Regulators are also vulnerable to what is known as a Baptist-and-bootlegger dynamic. In Clemson University economist Bruce Yandle’s classic example, a moralizing Baptist and a profit-seeking bootlegger will both favor a law requiring liquor stores to close on Sundays, though for different reasons. A morally-motivated Baptist does not want people drinking on Sundays and a bootlegger would gain a lucrative monopoly every Sunday. They may find themselves strange bedfellows, and bootleggers may even hide themselves in Baptist clothing.

Applying this dynamic to antitrust regulation, a true-believing “Baptist” in Congress or at the Justice Department or the FTC would be inclined to listen seriously to the entreaties of corporate “bootleggers” who can come up with virtuous-sounding reasons for why regulators should give their businesses special favorable treatment.

Oracle, one of Microsoft’s rivals, ran its own independent Microsoft investigation during that company’s antitrust case, for what it alleged were Baptist-style reasons. “All we did is try to take information that was hidden and bring it to light,” said Oracle CEO Larry Ellison. “I don’t think that was arrogance. I think it was a public service.” Former Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), who counted Oracle among his constituents, was one of the loudest anti-Microsoft voices in Congress. Around that time, he also received $17,500 donations from executives at Netscape, AOL, and Sun Microsystems.

Perhaps heeding Hatch’s admonition that, “If you want to get involved in business, you should get involved in politics,” Microsoft expanded its presence in Washington from a small outpost at a Bethesda, Maryland, sales office to a large downtown Washington office with a full-time staff, plus multiple outside lobbyists. Microsoft quickly went from a virtual non-entity in Washington to the 10th largest corporate soft money campaign donor by the 1997-1998 election cycle. Sen. Hatch’s campaign was among the beneficiaries.

The lines between Baptist and bootlegger can be blurry, and some actors play both parts. But such ethical dynamics are an integral part of antitrust regulation in practice.

The best way to reduce rent-seeking and regulatory capture is to have a system of government with few rents that can be sought, and fewer regulations that can be captured. Neo-Brandeisians, just like the rest of us, have to deal with the government we have, rather than an idealized abstraction. A more aggressive antitrust policy would increase rent-seeking, and should not be put forward as a solution to the problem.

For more, see Wayne Crews’ and my paper, “The Case against Antitrust Law: Ten Areas Where Antitrust Policy Can Move on from the Smokestack Era.” Further resources are at antitrust.cei.org.

Previous blog posts in the Antitrust Basics series:

Wicksteed on Trade

Philip H. Wicksteed’s 1910 textbook The Common Sense of Political Economy is accurately titled. Though not as well known today as his rough contemporary Alfred Marshall, Wicksteed influenced a number of prominent economists, including Nobel laureate James Buchanan. On p. 667, Wicksteed makes an important point about trade policy:

Thus the matter of investigation is the policy of directing a man’s bargaining along lines which he would not choose for himself in order to benefit certain people in whom we are specially interested at the expense of others in whom we are interested less or not at all. The area and grounds of our interest may be important in many ways, but they do not affect the economic theory.

Jerry Z. Muller – The Tyranny of Metrics

Jerry Z. Muller – The Tyranny of Metrics

This short book is one of the most useful I’ve read in recent years. I will be citing it often. Measurement is a good and useful thing, but it has its limits. Muller’s job in this book is to remind people of those limits. For example, improving school test scores sounds like a good idea, and was a key part of President George W. Bush’s No Child Left Behind education bill. But teachers started teaching to the test, ruining the purpose. This on-the-ground was entirely predictable, but regulators were so intent on using metrics to measure performance, they didn’t think it through.

One key point has to do with social science research. Few journals will publish papers that don’t measure anything–but not everything is measurable. This means that when policymakers and pundits are evaluating a policy, they can leave out important policy impacts. Either they dismiss non-measurable concerns because there is no published empirical research on it, or such concerns never enter their minds in the first place. Like a drunk looking for his lost keys, they only look where the light shines. Better to admit that things exist outside of that light. Better still to create one’s own light and see what is out there. Statistical significance matters, but it should not replace human judgment. It is a complement, not a substitute.