Category Archives: Economics

Irrational Behavior?

Here’s an unforeseen consequence of high gas prices: more people are letting their gas tanks edge closer and closer to empty before they fill up. Sometimes motorists are putting in only half a tank at a time. That means more drivers are running out of gas and getting stranded. Calls to AAA have doubled in some areas.

This is, to be polite, dumb.

The only way to use less gas is to drive less. Letting the needle tick down all the way to E doesn’t save a drop of fuel. If you fill up only halfway, you still spend the exact same amount of money on gas. And you now have to make twice as many trips to the gas station.

Maybe the people who wait until empty are waiting, hoping, praying that prices will come down before they refill. Maybe the people buying half a tank at a time are doing the same. Maybe they don’t have enough cash in hand to buy a full tank.

Or maybe they’re just fools. Who knows?

U.S.-Korean Trade Agreement Stalls

It looks like the impasse on the U.S.-South Korea trade agreement will get worse before it gets better. A mad cow disease scare is reaching epidemic proportions among the Korean public. The beef scare is stalling passage of the U.S.-Korea free trade agreement.

President Lee Myung-Bak has been under heavy fire ever since he decided to lift the 2003 ban on importing U.S. beef. The public outcry climaxed in a 100,000-strong protest over the weekend in Seoul.

Koreans are terrified that eating U.S. beef will give them mad cow disease. They shouldn’t be. I noted in an earlier post that approximately one in 35 million cows slaughtered in the U.S. have mad cow disease. Those odds are negligible; our food supply is safe.

If people still want to be scared, that is their right. No one should force them to buy U.S. beef. But why do they want to take that option away from people who don’t frighten so easily? Especially when $20 billion of increased trade is at stake?

Crafty Regulators

Contrary to popular belief, regulators tend to be very clever people. They know the rules of the game, and they know to how to use them to their advantage.

The latest example of bureaucratic perfidy is a recent decision by EU officials to raise tariffs on some high-tech goods from the United States. This doesn’t seem like a smart policy at first glance. It will make goods more expensive for European consumers. The tariffs might also be a violation of the Information Technology Agreement. The U.S. is not pleased, and is launching a WTO case.

There are two ingenious ways that revenue-hungry EU regulators are gaming the system.

One is taking advantage of how bureaucratized the WTO is. The current dispute is only in the first step right now, which is a formal consultation between the WTO and the EU. I believe the next step involves a strongly worded letter.

The EU regulators who imposed the tariffs know that the case will take years to decide. Their tariffs — and revenues — will stand untouched until then. They know they can violate free trade agreements almost at will, and years will pass before they’ll have to answer for it. Very clever.

The second spark of regulatory intelligence is a creative interpretation of the Information Technology Agreement (ITA). Under the agreement, computer monitors are duty-free, but televisions are not. So the EU is arguing that people are using larger computer monitors primarily as televisions, and not as computer monitors. That way they can be taxed.

Of course, only the people actually buying and using large computer monitors can say what they’re using them for. But the regulators have made a good enough argument to stall the WTO.

These are some very smart people. What a shame then, that they are using their talent to hinder trade instead of to free it.

The Economy Is Still Growing

The first revision for the first quarter’s GDP is in. Originally figured at 0.6% growth, it is now pegged at a slightly better 0.9%.

That’s not exactly record-setting growth. But the consensus seemed to be that the revision would be downward, perhaps even negative. So good news.

The Cuban Embargo

Barack Obama says he would keep in place the 47-year old Cuban trade embargo if elected President. CNN says Obama views the trade restrictions as “leverage to push for democratic change on the island.”

Yes, those sanctions have been awfully effective. Just look at how much more democratic Cuba has become since we began the embargo.

(Pardon the sarcasm.)

The Epidemiology of Protectionism

Right now South Korea is working toward a free trade agreement with the U.S. It could increase trade between the two nations by $20 billion. Unfortunately, a mad cow disease scare could prevent that from happening.

The hysteria started when the first U.S. case of mad cow disease was detected in 2003. To put it in context, mad cow afflicted a single cow out of the more than 35 million slaughtered that year. That 1-in-35-million ratio has roughly held since then. U.S. beef is safe.

But South Koreans don’t seem to think so. U.S. beef was immediately banned. After quietly simmering in the background, the embargo has been cautiously eased in fits and starts. Last month, President Lee Myung-Bak proposed lifting most restrictions on importing U.S. beef. Politically, the timing could not have been worse. The Korean media has been in hysterics, adding tension to already fragile negotiations.

Korea’s domestic beef lobby has been more than happy to stoke the flames of fear. “Our competitor’s product will kill you,” seems to be their message, with the implied “only buy from us.” People believe them, too.

This is a shame. The benefits to all Koreans from freer trade far outweigh the benefits to a single industry from preferential treatment.

Truth be told, both sides are to blame for the U.S.-Korea trade impasse. Here in the U.S., the tide has also been turning protectionist. The arguments that American liberalization opponents are using are about as sound as their Korean equivalents.

One news outlet said that 94% of Koreans carry a special gene that makes them more susceptible to mad cow disease. That claim has since been exposed as fraudulent. In America, people like Lou Dobbs are claiming that trade costs jobs; but America has gained 26 million net jobs since NAFTA was passed. Wages are higher, too.

Empirical data and economic theory are both on the side of free trade. The people negotiating the U.S.-Korea trade agreement would do well to remember that, even if both the media and public sentiment are against them.

Net Neutrality: Priorities, Please

All data are not treated equally on the Internet. There is only so much bandwidth to go around, so service providers give higher priority to certain types of data. Internet telephony and other time-sensitive applications like video games are sent through the Internet’s “express lanes,” while less urgent data sit in traffic. Comcastdoes this with BitTorrent file-sharing, for example. Prioritizing data is an efficient way to use the Internet’s limited resources.

But ISPs may one day offer express treatment for an additional charge. Such arrangements could benefit consumers and therefore should be legal, regardless of whether they materialize. Under such arrangements, YouTube, Amazon Unbox, or Apple’s iTunes Store could pay money for providers to give their sites the express-lane treatment. This would give service providers an incentive to build more and faster broadband infrastructure–where there is money to be made.

Congress thinks this is a problem. An antitrust problem, specifically. Reps. John Conyers (D-MI) and Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) have introduced a bill that would amend the Clayton Antitrust Act to “ensure competitive and non-discriminatory access to the Internet.” Providers would still be allowed to prioritize different kinds of data. But service providers would be barred from charging money to do it, in the name of what is called net neutrality.

The ban, of course, would reduce incentives for providers to expand and improve bandwidth. The result: a slower Internet for everyone. This consequence may be unintended, but it is not unforeseeable. Reps. Conyers and Lofgren should know better.

The faster that infrastructure is built, the faster that even the lowest-priority data will reach its destination. But new infrastructure won’t be built unless companies have an incentive to build it. Conyers-Lofgren hurts that incentive.

It gets worse. The Conyers-Lofgren bill is not the only game in town. It joins a similar, though less extreme effort by Reps. Ed Markey (D-MA) and Chip Pickering (R-MS). Net neutrality is a bipartisan issue, unfortunately. Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI) is another Republican who has publicly favored net neutrality. Every year it seems more and more likely that Congress will pass some kind of net neutrality bill.

All of these politicians have good intentions. Equality is a desirable thing in many cases, after all. But policies should be judged by their consequences, not their intentions. The long-run effect of net neutrality bills–particularly Conyers-Lofgren–would be to slow the growth of broadband. As in so many other areas, Congress would best serve the country by leaving well enough alone.

Postage Rates to Rise on Monday

The Forever Stamp is a great idea. When postage rates rise to 42 cents on Monday, we won’t have to bother with those infernal penny stamps.

But I think there’s a downside here; people are becoming less sensitive to postage price increases. Not that I devote my life to tracking the price of postage, but this was the first I’d heard of the increase. Two days in advance. Usually there’s a little more notice for these things. People needed the time to buy those accursed one and two-cent stamps. Not anymore.

And increases will happen more frequently than before, too. According to CNN, the USPS increases may become an annual affair each May. People might not even notice.

I’ll still take the Forever Stamp, (potential) drawbacks and all. They’re just so convenient.

Are We in a Recession?

Short answer: no.

The reason is that GDP is growing, according to numbers released this morning. It grew 0.6% last quarter. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP.

Now, 0.6% is certainly slower than we’d like to see. It may even be revised downward in the coming weeks. We all know the economy is not in ideal health right now.

But a recession? Not according to the definition economists have exclusively used for decades.

That doesn’t make for very exciting news. But there’s an easy way around that: just make up a new definition for “recession.” Make it mean anything you want it to.

Josh Bivens of the Economic Policy Institute did just that. What he told CNN certainly sounds more exciting than the bland truth:

“Despite the barely-positive growth, we are almost certainly in a recession. There’s nothing magical about staying above zero.”

Bivens might as well be a character in Alice in Wonderland:

‘When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said, in a rather scornful tone,’ it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.’

It is important that when we use a word like recession, we all mean the same thing. Confusing people by introducing multiple definitions doesn’t do anybody any good. Well, except maybe for reporters and press-hungry pundits.

Sometimes Bad Legislation Is Good

Florida’s legislature sure gets a lot done. This is especially impressive since they’re a part-time legislature, in session for only 60 days each year.

Last month they moved to regulate toilet paper quantities in restaurants.

Now they’re trying to solve the most pressing, urgent problem facing their fine state: fake testicles on the back of trucks.

Some people think this a waste of time. They’re right. But I think legislators aren’t being wasteful enough. Any time they spend on inanities like TruckNutz is time not spent strangling the state’s education and health care systems.

As a bonus, the bill’s own sponsor doubts his ban will become law. But he still tied up the Senate by having them vote on it. Since it passed, now the Assembly will have to waste time voting on it.

Kudos, I say.