Monthly Archives: August 2019

China Tariff Retaliation Shows Failure of Trump Policy

This is a CEI press release. The original is posted here.

On news that China plans to raise tariffs on Sep. 1 and Dec. 15, respectively, in retaliation for President Trump’s recent increase, Competitive Enterprise Institute senior fellow expert Ryan Young said failure of the tariff policy was predictable.

“Tariffs have once again failed to get China to make needed reforms, instead responding to Trump administration tariffs with retaliation. The administration should change course and re-engage the World Trade Organization dispute resolution process and rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership. China has already been lowering trade barriers against other countries and could do so with the U.S.

“Ultimately, Congress needs to reclaim the tariff-making authority it gave away to the president back in the 1960s and 1970s. In the meantime, economic adviser Peter Navarro should take Brett Favre’s advice to a referee and take two weeks off, then quit.”

Related reports:

Adrian Tchaikovsky – Children of Ruin

Adrian Tchaikovsky – Children of Ruin

A big part of the process of modernity is widening one’s circle of concern. People have always looked out for themselves and their family. As trade grew, people’s circle widened from the tribe to include one’s trading partners, whether in a farm-and-village dynamic or including long distance traders. As the scale widened, people had to be more accepting of people who dressed differently, spoke different languages, and worshipped different gods. The process is not over. In the last 70 years or so, the circle of concern has grown to address racism, homophobia, transgender rights, and more. The proper size of one’s circle of concern is at the heart of today’s debates over issues such as LGBT rights, trade, and immigration. Animal rights activists are even trying to expand the circle of concern to other species.

What does the circle of concern have to do with a science fiction novel? A lot. In Children of Time, the first book in this series, a botched attempt at seeding an alien planet with Earth life leads to an advanced civilization of spiders and ants, instead of the intended apes (a literal barrel of monkeys burns up while entering the atmosphere). The nanovirus-enhanced intelligent spiders and humans eventually become allies, widening their circles of concern to include two very different sentient species.

This book is the sequel; I do not know if further volumes are planned in the series. It introduces a race of nanovirus-enhanced octopi as well as an alien life form that is something like a slime mold. Where the first volume was evolution-themed, this volume is about psychology and consciousness. It is more interested in exploring and understanding how different species think, feel, and communicate. It as though Tchaikovsky is expanding Adam Smith’s circle of concern as broadly as he possibly can, and seeing what happens.

Tchaikovsky’s spiders communicate through vibration and touch, and are unable to hear human speech. Both spiders and humans come up with all kinds of translators and ways to understand each other, and though their friendships are sincere, some differences are too vast for them to comprehend. Also of interest is the spiders’ own gender disparity, in which males are discriminated against and discounted as inferior, mirroring our own species’ issues. The spiders have even been making progress in recent generations, with male spiders advancing to prominent scientific research positions, though workplace politics are touchy.

The stars of this book are nanovirus enhanced octopi, who ancient humans seeded on one of two habitable planets in a different star system than the spider planet from the first book. Tchakivsky researched the subject, and the octopi in his book are impulsive, emotional, factional, and quick to change their minds as their emotions explore different sides of an issue. Not being able to use speech like humans or vibrations like spiders, octopi instead communicate by changing colors. Different feelings are automatically expressed in different colorations, which they are unable to hide. They almost literally wear their emotions on their sleeve, and their intellectual deliberations are plainly visible.

Also putting in a turn is an alien life form with a collective consciousness, kind of like an intelligent slime mold or a bacteria with a long collective memory and the ability to interface with and control other organisms. This lets Tchaikovsky explore a whole other form of consciousness, of which we don’t have any examples on Earth.

The plot throws these very different consciousnesses together and lets them try to sort out who is on who’s side, how to overcome communication barriers, and try to come to some kind of understanding. The extent to which they can succeed requires a circle of concern rather greater than most people on Earth have today.

Gabriel García Márquez– One Hundred Years of Solitude

Gabriel García Márquez– One Hundred Years of Solitude

The story of the fictional town of Macondo and seven generations of its founders, the Buendias family. Their ups and downs, passions, quarrels, affairs, fights, triumphs, divisions, and failures are an extended metaphor for Colombian history. The occasional mystic elements Márquez integrates into the story, always told in a straight, matter-of-fact style, became known as magical realism, which became a movement in Latin American literature far larger than this 1967 novel.

It is worth noting that Márquez had a soft spot for dictators, especially Cuba’s Castro regime. Even after the idealism of the Cuban revolution died down and the regime’s human rights abuses became common knowledge, Márquez chose to remain a friend and ally of the regime. As with other figures such as Wagner, considerable artistic merit is sometimes colored by the artist’s questionable judgment or moral sense. In art, as in life, few things are purely good or evil.

Antitrust Basics: Corruption and Rent-Seeking

This is the sixth entry in the “Antitrust Basics” series. See below for previous posts.

Rent-seeking is economics jargon for chasing after unfair special favors from government. Businesses and individuals have a large menu of rent-seeking options to choose from, and antitrust regulations are one of the items. Licensing regulations and other restrictions can make it harder for startups to enter a market, favoring incumbent businesses. Bailouts, such as General Motors and several large financial firms have received in recent years, are another form of rent-seeking. Cash subsidies, such as many green energy producers receive, are rent-seeking examples. Special financing, as through agencies like the Export-Import Bank or the Overseas Private Investment Bank, enable rent-seeking by Boeing and many farm and construction equipment manufacturers such as John Deere and General Electric.

All told, it is a minor miracle that corporate welfare is only about a $100 billion problem. Standard economic theory predicts that it should be much larger. Competitive Enterprise Institute founder Fred Smith and I wrote a paper arguing that virtue is an important limiting factor, though incomplete. Antitrust regulation provides another temptation to seek unfair rents, and would not improve the business world’s moral climate.

Neo-Brandeisians and other progressives rightfully oppose rent-seeking, but err when they propose increased antitrust policies as a solution.Tim Wu, a prominent neo-Brandeisian analyst, correctly points out how numerous companies game government policies to reduce competition, but then goes on to advocate for more government power as the solution. Even now, in a relatively restrained antitrust environment, roughly 95 percent of antitrust lawsuits are brought privately by competitors, not by the Justice Department or Federal Trade Commission. Repealing antitrust regulation would not eliminate rent-seeking—there are many other avenues rent-seekers can take—but it would reduce it.

Neo-Brandeisians advocating antitrust regulation as a way to promote virtue have a common misunderstanding of how governments work in practice. Government employees do not operate with only the public interest in mind. They are human beings, with the same incentives, flaws, and self-interested tendencies as other human beings.

Agency employees want to increase their budgets and power, and often enjoy the publicity that accompanies big cases. Regulators are also vulnerable to what is known as a Baptist-and-bootlegger dynamic. In Clemson University economist Bruce Yandle’s classic example, a moralizing Baptist and a profit-seeking bootlegger will both favor a law requiring liquor stores to close on Sundays, though for different reasons. A morally-motivated Baptist does not want people drinking on Sundays and a bootlegger would gain a lucrative monopoly every Sunday. They may find themselves strange bedfellows, and bootleggers may even hide themselves in Baptist clothing.

Applying this dynamic to antitrust regulation, a true-believing “Baptist” in Congress or at the Justice Department or the FTC would be inclined to listen seriously to the entreaties of corporate “bootleggers” who can come up with virtuous-sounding reasons for why regulators should give their businesses special favorable treatment.

Oracle, one of Microsoft’s rivals, ran its own independent Microsoft investigation during that company’s antitrust case, for what it alleged were Baptist-style reasons. “All we did is try to take information that was hidden and bring it to light,” said Oracle CEO Larry Ellison. “I don’t think that was arrogance. I think it was a public service.” Former Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), who counted Oracle among his constituents, was one of the loudest anti-Microsoft voices in Congress. Around that time, he also received $17,500 donations from executives at Netscape, AOL, and Sun Microsystems.

Perhaps heeding Hatch’s admonition that, “If you want to get involved in business, you should get involved in politics,” Microsoft expanded its presence in Washington from a small outpost at a Bethesda, Maryland, sales office to a large downtown Washington office with a full-time staff, plus multiple outside lobbyists. Microsoft quickly went from a virtual non-entity in Washington to the 10th largest corporate soft money campaign donor by the 1997-1998 election cycle. Sen. Hatch’s campaign was among the beneficiaries.

The lines between Baptist and bootlegger can be blurry, and some actors play both parts. But such ethical dynamics are an integral part of antitrust regulation in practice.

The best way to reduce rent-seeking and regulatory capture is to have a system of government with few rents that can be sought, and fewer regulations that can be captured. Neo-Brandeisians, just like the rest of us, have to deal with the government we have, rather than an idealized abstraction. A more aggressive antitrust policy would increase rent-seeking, and should not be put forward as a solution to the problem.

For more, see Wayne Crews’ and my paper, “The Case against Antitrust Law: Ten Areas Where Antitrust Policy Can Move on from the Smokestack Era.” Further resources are at antitrust.cei.org.

Previous blog posts in the Antitrust Basics series:

Dava Sobel – Longitude: The True Story of a Lone Genius Who Solved the Greatest Scientific Problem of His Time

Dava Sobel – Longitude: The True Story of a Lone Genius Who Solved the Greatest Scientific Problem of His Time

John Harrison gets his due. Even now his name is virtually unknown, but he made one of the most important discoveries in the history of exploration—how to find longitude. It’s easy to find one’s latitude. If you can see the North Star, you’re in the northern hemisphere. The higher up in the sky it is, the farther north you are. Ditto for the Southern Cross and other features in the southern hemisphere’s night key.

Longitude is also easy in concept—just compare when noon local time is with noon Greenwich Mean Time (GMT), and you’ll know exactly how far east or west you are. The trouble is that building a clock that kept accurate time while enduring rough shipboard conditions was impossible for all of human history. Everyone from Phoenician sailors on up through Columbus and Magellan had no idea what longitudes their discoveries were located at. They could only guess, and they often did a lousy job of it.

The key to finding accurate longitude was a centuries-long pop culture joke, similar to pre-1969 “they’ll put a man on the moon before that happens” jokes. The longitude joke’s currency ended in the mid-1700s when a watchmaker named John Harrison, spurred on by a £20,000 prize sponsored by the Royal Society, invented a series of clocks that were finally up to the task.

Sobel tells the story masterfully, setting up the history of the problem and why it matters, the origins of the Royal Society and prizes for inventions, the significance of the Scientific Revolution, John Harrison’s life story and his chase of the prize, and fascinating descriptions of the materials and craftsmanship that went into Harrison’s remarkable inventions. He made five clocks, each outdoing the last, though H-4, as it is known, is the most famous.

Wicksteed on Trade

Philip H. Wicksteed’s 1910 textbook The Common Sense of Political Economy is accurately titled. Though not as well known today as his rough contemporary Alfred Marshall, Wicksteed influenced a number of prominent economists, including Nobel laureate James Buchanan. On p. 667, Wicksteed makes an important point about trade policy:

Thus the matter of investigation is the policy of directing a man’s bargaining along lines which he would not choose for himself in order to benefit certain people in whom we are specially interested at the expense of others in whom we are interested less or not at all. The area and grounds of our interest may be important in many ways, but they do not affect the economic theory.

Dava Sobel: Galileo’s Daughter: A Historical Memoir of Science, Faith and Love

Dava Sobel: Galileo’s Daughter: A Historical Memoir of Science, Faith and Love

A joint biography of Galileo and his daughter, and a good history of early modern Italy and the Scientific Revolution. Galileo had three children, all illegitimate. He was in a loving lifelong relationship, but social conventions of the time said that academics could not marry. As a result, Galileo’s children grew up under an unjust stigma and were denied opportunities they might otherwise have had. Both of his daughters ended up in convents. One of them, the well-named Maria Celeste (think celestial, and remember that Galileo was an astronomer), inherited her father’s intellect. Though she was not allowed to put her gifts to much use, she was about as accomplished as a woman in her time was allowed to be—though almost entirely uncredited, naturally.

She also left behind a long trail of correspondence with her father, from which Sobel quotes extensively. From this, Sobel tells Maria Celeste’s life story, and Galileo’s, goes into the science of his discoveries, and, for good measure, gives a cultural history of the time. Sobel gives a good flavor of what daily life was like in convents, in universities, in the town and in the country, and how repressive medieval religion was for men and women alike. Women got the short end of an already short stick.

Jerry Z. Muller – The Tyranny of Metrics

Jerry Z. Muller – The Tyranny of Metrics

This short book is one of the most useful I’ve read in recent years. I will be citing it often. Measurement is a good and useful thing, but it has its limits. Muller’s job in this book is to remind people of those limits. For example, improving school test scores sounds like a good idea, and was a key part of President George W. Bush’s No Child Left Behind education bill. But teachers started teaching to the test, ruining the purpose. This on-the-ground was entirely predictable, but regulators were so intent on using metrics to measure performance, they didn’t think it through.

One key point has to do with social science research. Few journals will publish papers that don’t measure anything–but not everything is measurable. This means that when policymakers and pundits are evaluating a policy, they can leave out important policy impacts. Either they dismiss non-measurable concerns because there is no published empirical research on it, or such concerns never enter their minds in the first place. Like a drunk looking for his lost keys, they only look where the light shines. Better to admit that things exist outside of that light. Better still to create one’s own light and see what is out there. Statistical significance matters, but it should not replace human judgment. It is a complement, not a substitute.

Edward Wilson-Lee – The Catalogue of Shipwrecked Books: Christopher Columbus, His Son, and the Quest to Build the World’s Greatest Library

Edward Wilson-Lee – The Catalogue of Shipwrecked Books: Christopher Columbus, His Son, and the Quest to Build the World’s Greatest Library

Christopher Columbus was not the only interesting person in his family. His son Hernando was also both accomplished and flawed. He also assembled what was probably the world’s largest library at the time. This book gets its title from 1,200 volumes of that library that were lost at sea. Hernando knew his father’s place in history, and as a youth even accompanied him on his fourth voyage. Hernando would also take his own voyage to Hispaniola later in life.

Hernando saw himself as a caretaker of the family legacy. He played a role in downplaying Christopher Columbus’ mysticism and other bizarre beliefs, as well as the degree to which Columbus misunderstood his discoveries. Hernando also played a large role in publishing and editing Columbus’ autobiography, which would shape popular history for centuries. Bartoleme de las Casas, one of my historical heroes and author of A Short Account of the Destruction of the Indies, also plays a role in this story. He and Hernando did not get along.

Edwards-Lee intermingles this history, and Hernando’s role in it, with Hernando’s private life as a book collector, librarian, and scholar. This allows Edwards-Lee to delve into the history of printing, how different ways to organize libraries can help or hinder different kinds of research, and even compares different cataloging systems to early search engines (Hernando lived before Google).

This book is a hybrid of Hernando Columbus’ biography, the history of early transatlantic exploration, and a book about books. It’s a little disjointed both in scale and in subject matter, but is still an enjoyable slice of history.

A Tacit Admission of Who Pays for Tariffs

Over at the Washington Post, Heather Long has a writeup on President Trump’s partial delay, until near the end of the holiday season, of new tariffs on popular Chinese-made consumer products. I found this quote interesting:

“The decision to delay new tariffs on Chinese-made toys, smartphones, laptops and other popular holiday gifts is a tacit admission that consumers pay for tariffs, not Chinese producers,” said Ryan Young, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

Read the rest of the otherwise-excellent piece here.