Monthly Archives: March 2019

Frank Knight on Behavioral Economics

Or at least it nudgier side. This is from nearly a century ago, long before the current behavioral economics field began. Knight, like any good economist, agrees with behavorialists in rejecting perfect rationality as a reliable guide to human behavior. But behavioralists go too far when they move from is to should.

From p. 182 of 1921’s Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit:

A large part of the critics’ strictures on the existing system come down to protests against the individual wanting what he wants instead of what is good for him, of which the critic is to be the judge; and the critic does not feel himself called upon to outline any standards other than his own preferences upon a basis of which judgment is to be passed.

McDonald’s and the Minimum Wage

McDonald’s recently announced it will decline to oppose minimum wage increases. The Washington Examiner‘s Sean Higgins has a good writeup about the decision, in which I am briefly quoted.

Robert H. Bork – The Antitrust Paradox: A Policy at War with Itself

Robert H. Bork – The Antitrust Paradox: A Policy at War with Itself

Probably the most influential book ever written on antitrust policy, though it has its flaws. I analyze several of its arguments in an upcoming paper; I’ll try to remember to update this post with a link when the paper is out.

From its Progressive Era beginnings, antitrust law was dominated by lawyers who disdained economics, and it showed in the quality of their policies and court decisions. During the Depression and the New Deal, President Roosevelt mostly abandoned antitrust law in favor of government-approved, or even government-managed cartels, in a similar disregard of economics. This model was mostly abandoned after World War II, when regulators resumed antitrust enforcement. Prosecutions reached record levels by the late 1950s and early 1960s.

Around that time, a new law and economics movement was underway, especially at the University of Chicago. Bork was one of many scholars who were part of it, along with Aaron Director, George Stigler, Ronald Coase, Richard Posner, and many others. They proposed, instead of attacking the Brandeisian “Curse of Bigness,” moving to a consumer welfare standard. Under this thinking, big isn’t automatically bad. Antitrust measures should only be taken if it can be proven that a company is causing consumer harm. Bork wasn’t the first to make this argument, but he was the most influential, and The Antitrust Paradox remains the most widely cited book on the subject, by friend and foe alike (this writer is somewhere in between).

Bork and other consumer welfare standard advocates, while an improvement over Brandeisian populism, don’t get everything right, at least in my view. Better to get rid of bad policies altogether than simply use them less frequently, as Bork favors. But his compendium of case law, economic reasoning, and legal history is immensely useful regardless of one’s priors. While not the breeziest of reads, Bork does occasionally show some flashes of wit, such as when he compares the Robinson-Patman Act’s attempt to control prices to a baseball player who might be a lousy hitter, but balances it out by also being a poor defender.

Sarah E. Bond – Trade and Taboo: Disreputable Professions in the Roman Mediterranean

Sarah E. Bond – Trade and Taboo: Disreputable Professions in the Roman Mediterranean

It reads like a dry Ph.D thesis, but interesting nonetheless. Roman commercial taboos mostly centered around the body. Actors and singers had low social status not for being lowbrow, but because they were selling their bodily abilities for money. Even town criers were held in social contempt for selling their voices. Funeral workers were disdained for handling dead bodies—though this pre-germ theory taboo probably made sense for public health. Tanners’ dirty work—leathermaking process involved urine—kept them in low esteem. Moneymakers, in particular the workers who physically smelted and minted the coins were in a weird place, simultaneously shunned and held close to the emperor, and were forbidden to marry women from higher social classes. Cooks and other food workers were also held at arm’s length. They were still necessary, especially the ones who worked for the upper classes Bakers had especially low status, for the more pleasure their food gave, the more disdain they were given.

This ancient, nearly universal disdain for commerce ties into Deirdre McCloskey’s thesis about what caused modern prosperity. Cultures that disdain commerce and wealth remain poor. Those that value it prosper. The particular values and taboos vary from place to place, and there is a large subjective element—some of Rome’s seem strange to us, just as ours would seem strange to them.

But negative views of such earthly things as money and bodies had predictable results. While rich for its time due to its large trading network, Roman per capita GDP was roughly one thirtieth of today’s, and the pace of technological improvement was slow. Roman body taboos likely played into its disregard for individual human beings, from the Roman legions’ harsh discipline to gladiatorial combat to astonishingly high levels of everyday violence.

Robert A. Caro – The Power Broker: Robert Moses and the Fall of New York

Robert A. Caro – The Power Broker: Robert Moses and the Fall of New York

Robert Moses played a large role in developing New York’s parks, highways, and major buildings for more than 40 years. He also displaced more than a quarter of a million people to make room for his development projects.

Caro’s primary research interest is power, and Moses is an excellent case study in that regard. He knew how to acquire it, and he knew how to use it. Caro tries his best to be evenhanded, but as with Lyndon Johnson, Caro’s other great subject, some people are just plain unlikable. Moses was a serial liar about finances dating back to his college days at Yale, when he proposed deceiving a donor to his swim team. In his professional life his obfuscations would cost taxpayers billions of dollars. He also enjoyed a lavish lifestyle, including a taxpayer-provided Cadillac limousine with three full-time chauffeurs.

The depths of his racism surprised people even back in the pre-Civil Rights days, to the point of requiring African-Americans to get permits to visit beaches, then often denying the permits on specious grounds. His development projects deliberately either ignored or paved over minority-heavy neighborhoods. Even his personal life showed a lack of character, with him writing his brother out of their mother’s will and estranging him from the rest of the family, and having several affairs and marrying a woman 28 years his junior roughly a month after his wife died.

Moses was a public hero for most of his career, but when the press and public turned on him in the 1960s, they turned hard.

Dominick Armentano – Antitrust: The Case for Repeal

Dominick Armentano – Antitrust: The Case for Repeal

A slim volume that is neither broad nor deep, but has its uses. It is a more strident, though more accessible younger sibling to Armentano’s more thorough Antitrust and Monopoly. It has some good arguments for abolishing antitrust regulation outright, but the shrill delivery makes the content less palatable. That is its own lesson.

This Week in Ridiculous Regulations

As tempers flared over how many “chuggas” to say before “choo-choo,” the 2019 Federal Register topped the 10,000-page mark last week and the number of new final regulations passed 500. Meanwhile, rulemaking agencies issued new regulations ranging from swap transactions to liquid mail.

On to the data:

  • Last week, 59 new final regulations were published in the Federal Register, after 69 the previous week.
  • That’s the equivalent of a new regulation every two hours and 51 minutes.
  • Federal agencies have issued 506 final regulations in 2019. At that pace, there will be 2,259 new final regulations. Last year’s total was 3,367 regulations.
  • Last week, agencies published 511 notices, for a total of 4,396 in 2019. At that pace, there will be 19,625 new notices this year. Last year’s total was 22,205.
  • Last week, 1,277 new pages were added to the Federal Register, after 1,102 pages the previous week.
  • The 2019 Federal Register totals 10,969 pages. It is on pace for 48,969 pages. The 2018 total was 68,082 pages. The all-time record adjusted page count (which subtracts skips, jumps, and blank pages) is 96,994, set in 2016.
  • Rules are called “economically significant” if they have costs of $100 million or more in a given year. One such rule has been published this year. Six such rules were published in 2018.
  • The running compliance cost tally for 2019’s economically significant regulations currently ranges from $139.1 million to $175.8 million. The 2018 total ranges from $220.1 million to $2.54 billion, depending on discount rates and other assumptions.
  • Agencies have published 18 final rules meeting the broader definition of “significant” so far this year. 2018’s total was 108 significant final rules.
  • So far in 2019, 98 new rules affect small businesses; 5 of them are classified as significant. 2018’s totals were 660 rules affecting small businesses, with 29 of them significant.

Highlights from last week’s new final regulations:

For more data, see Ten Thousand Commandments and follow @10KC and @RegoftheDay on Twitter.

Dominick T. Armentano – Antitrust and Monopoly: Anatomy of a Policy Failure

Dominick T. Armentano – Antitrust and Monopoly: Anatomy of a Policy Failure

There are two main schools of thought on antitrust regulation. The traditional populist school prefers an active antitrust policy. Justice Brandeis famously advocated a “big is bad” rule, where big companies should be broken up due to their size, regardless of how consumers are affected. Other populists reach similar policy conclusions for different reasons, such as a larger vision of the good society.

This is usually contrasted with the Chicago approach, most famously exemplified by Richard Posner and Robert Bork. They advocate the consumer welfare standard, where big is ok unless it harms consumers. This is the general rule of thumb today, when antitrust enforcement is more restrained than in its smokestack-era heyday.

Armentano favors just getting rid of the whole antitrust mess altogether. He bases his approach mostly in economic reasoning, but also uses some logical and legal arguments and empirical evidence. He comes across as shrill and ideological at times, but his arguments are mostly sound.

The first two chapters give an overview of the economic and logical objections to antitrust regulation, and most of the rest of the book applies that theory to nearly a century of case law in various areas, from price fixing and price discrimination to tying and mergers.

Armentano’s book is surprisingly current for a book published in 1982. The post-Chicago antitrust slowdown means that only two major cases are missing—the 1980s AT&T breakup and the 1990s Microsoft case. With a populist president and progressive activists pushing for an antitrust revival against a mostly passionless opposition, this issue could get hot. What was old is new again, and could cause enormous consumer harm.

This book has its shortcomings. It relies too much on blackboard thinking for my taste, and Armentano understates the importance of regulatory capture and rent-seeking throughout, which both would have strengthened his position.

But his general approach needs to be a part of the debate. One side wants a lot of a bad thing. The other side also wants the bad thing, just less of it. Armentano argues that both sides have it wrong. Don’t have less of it, get rid of it.

Video Introduction to Hayek

Peter Boettke links to a useful video series introducing F.A. Hayek’s major themes and works, put together by Don Boudreaux and the Fraser Institute.

Adrian Tchaikovsky – Children of Time

Adrian Tchaikovsky – Children of Time

An evolution-themed sci-fi novel, recommended to me by Tom Palmer. It is excellent. Humans terraform a world, intending to seed it with an evolution-accelerating nanovirus and populate it with monkeys as an experiment. But a Luddite revolution means that while the virus reaches the planet, the barrel of monkeys does not. Only a single human survives the battle, and she goes into hibernation for thousands of years in orbit around the planet. The virus instead works on the spiders that had already been seeded there and, to a lesser extent, ants. They grow their own civilization, which increases in complexity and sophistication throughout the novel in ways both very familiar and very alien.

Meanwhile, the Luddite revolution on Earth presages the end of civilization there, an Ice Age lasting millennia, what’s left of mankind slowly rebuilding civilization over several more millennia, and once again becoming a space-faring race. While not quite as sophisticated as the original Empire, things go south again, and life on Earth is no longer an option. A colony ship containing the last humans in the universe finds its way to the terraformed planet’s system after two thousand years’ hibernation, not knowing what had happened before, in response to a distress beacon left by the original terraformer. The two species’ civilizations then meet.

The chapters go back and forth between the human and spider civilizations, so both of their trajectories are always in the reader’s mind, and Tchaikovsky tells each from the perspective of that species. Along the way reader, author, and characters explore larger themes such as evolution, the origins of life, the handing off from one generation to the next, the desire to survive, and seeing things from the other fellow’s perspective, too. It’s a little on the long side, but I could not put this book down. Highly recommended.