Monthly Archives: October 2013

The federal government welcomed back its furloughed workers this morning after Congress and the president reached a deal to raise the debt ceiling. All is back to normal, though one could certainly debate if this is a good thing. As I pointed out here and here, most shutdowns follow a similar script, so far as regulation is concerned.

There was a flux of new rules leading up to the shutdown, as agencies tried to hurry what they could before going on furlough. Once the shutdown hit, new regulations slowed to a trickle. Last week, the first full week, had just 6 new final rules in the Federal Register; a normal week sees 70-80 new regulations. This week has been just as slow, with just 3 new rules through Thursday.

The next day or two will also be slow ones for the Federal Register. But then there will be a flood of new rules as agencies make up for lost time. After the second Gingrich-Clinton showdown ended, there were 82 rules published in a single day. Since this shutdown was about two weeks long, the coming spike could be in the same league. We’ll find out on Monday or Tuesday, depending on how long it takes agencies to rev up their regulatory engines.

Short answer: not much. Over at the Daily Caller, I go over some data from this shutdown, as well as the two Gingrich-Clinton showdowns and find that this shutdown will likely have almost no net effect on the amount of new regulations issued. Regulations might be down to a slow trickle right now, but agencies will make up for it when they re-open their doors. But there is an upside to it:

This is not entirely a bad thing. As the late Nobel-winning economist Ronald Coase wrote, “An economist who, by his efforts, is able to postpone by a week a government program which wastes $100 million a year (what I would consider a modest success) has, by his action, earned his salary for the whole of his life.” By that measure, and no other, President Obama and his Republican opponents are turning out to be fine economists.

As so often happens, the hyperbole in the shutdown debate is missing the fact that this shutdown just isn’t particularly impactful, especially on the regulatory front. Read the whole piece here.

Welcome to a special shutdown edition of CEI’s Battered Business Bureau. After setting a yearly high for rules (113) and topping 2,000 pages for just the third time all year, the first full week of the shutdown made for a very bare-bones Federal Register, with just 6 rules and 353 pages.

Remember, this is the 17^th shutdown since current budgeting rules were adopted in 1976, so this shutdown is less an anomaly than it is business as usual. The relative peace that lasted from Bill Clinton’s second term until now is the real anomaly.

Most shutdowns follow a similar pattern. So far, this shutdown has, too. First, agencies publish as many rules as they can leading up to the shutdown—hence the inflated rule and page counts in recent weeks. When the shutdown begins, there is typically a two-day lag before the Federal Register slows down its rule and page counts. It then lies near-dormant for the duration of the shutdown, with just a slow trickle of rules until two to three business days after the shutdown ends. Agencies then make up for the lost time with a deluge of regulations. The longer the shutdown, the more intense the flood.

The point is that shutdowns have little, if any, net effect on the amount of regulation. Some rules are published a little earlier than planned, some are published a little bit later, and that’s about it. Something to keep in mind as the shutdown battle continues.

On to the data:

• Last week, 6 new final regulations were published in the Federal Register. There were 113 new final rules the previous week.
• That’s the equivalent of a new regulation every 28 hours.
• All in all, 2,869 final rules have been published in the Federal Register this year.
• If this keeps up, the total tally for 2013 will be 3,687 new final rules.
• Last week, 353 new pages were added to the 2013 Federal Register, for a total of 62,090 pages.
• At its current pace, the 2013 Federal Register will run 78,397 pages, which would be good for fifth all time – keep in mind, though, the light shutdown week artificially lowers this projection. The actual page count will likely be much closer to 80,000. The current record is 81,405 pages, set in 2010.
• Rules are called “economically significant” if they have costs of $100 million or more in a given year. No such rules were published last week, for a total of 34 so far in 2013.
• The total estimated compliance costs of this year’s economically significant regulations ranges from $6.53 billion to $11.93 billion.
• So far, 258 final rules that meet the broader definition of “significant” have been published in 2013.
• So far this year, 549 final rules affect small business; 75 of them are significant rules.

Instead of the usual highlights from selected final rules, here are all of them, since there were only six:

• The only significant rule is a big one – 275 pages worth of Basel III bank capital standards implementation. This rule alone counts for 78 percent of this week’s Federal Register page count. The Basel accords determine how much capital banks need to keep in reserve. The mathematical formulas involved are, shall we way, complex. Earlier Basel standards have proven devastatingly ineffective in keeping banks solvent, and the new Basel III will likely be no better.
• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued two rules for Alaskan Pollock fishing. One covers Area 620, the other covers Area 630.
• The NOAA also issued rules for Gulf king mackerel and snappers and groupers.
• The Coast Guard issued the week’s only other regulation. It established a temporary safety zone around a bridge in Galveston, Texas while it is being repaired.

For more data, see Ten Thousand Commandments and follow @10KC and @RegoftheDay on Twitter.

This week in the world of regulation:

Last week, 113 new final regulations were published in the Federal Register. There were 80 new final rules the previous week.

• That’s the equivalent of a new regulation every 1 hour and 29 minutes — 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
• All in all, 2,863 final rules have been published in the Federal Register this year.
• If this keeps up, the total tally for 2013 will be 3,773 new final rules.
• Last week, 2,159 new pages were added to the 2013 Federal Register, for a total of 61,737 pages.
• At its current pace, the 2013 Federal Register will run 79,971 pages, which would be good for third all time. The current record is 81,405 pages, set in 2010.
• Rules are called “economically significant” if they have costs of $100 million or more in a given year. One such rule was published last week, for a total of 34 so far in 2013.
• The total estimated compliance costs of this year’s economically significant regulations ranges from $6.53 billion to $11.93 billion.
• So far, 257 final rules that meet the broader definition of “significant” have been published in 2013.
• So far this year, 549 final rules affect small business; 75 of them are significant rules.

Highlights from final rules published last week:

• This week’s economically significant rule comes from the Wage and Hour Division. It is expanding the Fair Labor Standards Act to cover domestic employees. It estimates that transfers from employers to employees, familiarization costs, and paperwork will cost between $135,712,508 and $314,712,508.
• In Wilmington, Delaware, there are several drawbridges that span the Christina river. The federal government regulates when they go up and down.
• The federal government runs a Blueberry Promotion and Research Program. It is also raising the rates it charges blueberry farmers.
• The U.S. government declared the blue-throated macaw an endangered species. It lives only in Bolivia.
• Taylor’s checkerspot butterfly is now listed as endangered, and the streaked horned lark is threatened. They also received a combined 6,000+ acres of critical habitat. If any of that land is private property, we have a possible regulatory taking.
• The spring pygmy sunfish is now threatened, and the Florida bonneted bat is endangered. Two species of cactus were also classified as endangered, bringing the week’s total of new protected species this week to 7.
• The Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau established four new “viticultural areas” that winemakers can use to make their labels seem fancier. According to the text of the rules, the agency “designates viticultural areas to allow vintners to better describe the origin of their wines and to allow consumers to better identify wines they may purchase.”

For more data, see Ten Thousand Commandments and follow @10KC and @RegoftheDay on Twitter.