The Bureau of Economic Analysis recently revised its third quarter growth estimate to -0.5%. They will release the fourth quarter figures on January 30. If they are negative, as is widely expected, GDP growth for the whole year may well go negative, too.
By my calculations from BEA data, all it will take (for real GDP, not nominal) is -0.79% growth. Well within the realm of possibility.
What would this mean? Even in these hard times, the American economy will still record the second-highest real GDP in human history. For any country. In any time period. Ever. And this in a recession! Remarkable.
Times are tough, to be sure. But they’re not nearly as bad as most people believe.
Inertia Wins! 